Russia's recent firing of North Korean-made ballistic missiles into Ukraine has raised concerns and sparked discussions about the potential implications of such actions. The move is believed to provide Pyongyang with valuable insights into how its own homegrown missiles perform against Western-made air defenses. Additionally, there is growing speculation that if Iran were to supply its missiles to Russia in the future, it could also gain similar insights.
It has been reported that Russia has fired North Korean missiles into Ukraine on multiple occasions, with the US Ambassador to the United Nations revealing that these launches occurred at least nine times by February 6th. These missile firings took place on December 30th, January 2nd, and January 6th, marking some of the most intense aerial bombardments against Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. This development has led to the belief that Russia and North Korea will learn valuable lessons from these launches.
South Korea's envoy to the United Nations accused North Korea of using Ukraine as a test site for its nuclear-capable missiles by supplying them to Russia. The missiles used by Russia are structurally similar to Russia's Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, suggesting that North Korea likely supplied Moscow with KN-23 or KN-24 missiles. These missiles, known as Hwasong-11Ga and Hwasongpho-11Na in North Korea, are estimated to be present in North Korea's arsenal to the tune of approximately 100 units.
The United States has publicly stated its belief that Russia is actively seeking 'close-range ballistic missiles' from Iran. However, as of now, there is no evidence to suggest that such missiles have been delivered. Concerns have been raised about Russian negotiations to acquire these missiles from Iran, and there is apprehension that a deal may be finalized as early as spring. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's visit to Iran in September, during which he was shown Iranian-built missiles, has added to the speculation.
Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, with over 3,000 in its arsenal. It has previously supplied thousands of Shahed 131/136 loitering munitions to Russia and could potentially help bolster Russia's short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) arsenal. This would allow Moscow to continue large-scale attacks against Ukraine without depleting its own stockpiles too quickly.
While North Korea has extensively tested its nuclear-capable missiles, Ukraine presents a unique opportunity for it to witness how these missiles perform in a real combat situation. In contrast, Iran has already deployed its missiles in various conflicts in the Middle East. Notably, in mid-January, Iranian missiles launched from western Iran struck targets in Syria's northwestern Idlib province, over 700 miles away – representing Iran's longest-range strike to date.
However, it remains uncertain whether Iran could learn as much as North Korea from any potential Russian use of its SRBMs against Ukraine. Farzin Nadimi, a defense and security analyst, believes that if Russia were to employ Iranian SRBMs, it would provide valuable data on the capabilities of these missiles, particularly against enemy air defenses. He suggests that Iranian missiles may offer advantages over their North Korean counterparts in terms of accuracy, reliability, and warhead options. Nadimi also emphasizes that Iran's SRBMs push the range limits and some variants possess separating hypersonic reentry sections/warheads, which could prove advantageous against Ukraine's advanced missile defense systems.
Nonetheless, Nadimi remains skeptical about Iran supplying Russia with such high-end systems. While North Korea has provided missiles with ranges of up to 560 miles, Iran may be hesitant to exceed the Missile Technology Control Regime's recommended limit of 186 miles. He also stresses that while Iran and Russia may exchange information on countering Western-made missile defenses, the learning experience will be mutual, with Iran also having much to gain from Russia's expertise.
In conclusion, Russia's use of North Korean missiles in Ukraine has raised concerns and sparked debates regarding its implications. The potential acquisition of Iranian missiles by Russia in the future is a topic of speculation and has sparked discussions about the knowledge-sharing that may occur between the two countries. While Russia may gain insights into the performance of Iranian missiles, it is important to recognize that Iran has its own valuable experience in using these missiles in real combat scenarios. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen how these developments will impact the dynamics of missile technology and defense capabilities in the region.
