Russia has begun using a new model of high-speed drone against Ukraine amid claims by Kyiv’s military intelligence directorate that key parts are sourced from western and Chinese companies.
Wreckage recovered from a so-called Geran-5 long-range attack drone that was fired at Ukraine in early January points to a series of new capabilities that experts believe could pose a serious threat to Ukraine’s already struggling air defence if deployed widely.
Local reporting suggests two of the drones have been shot down, both this year, one near Kyiv and another near Dnipro.
Powered by a Chinese turbo jet engine, the Geran-5 has a long cylindrical body attached to wings, unlike previous iterations based on Iran’s delta-shaped Shahed drone, making it appear more like a conventional aircraft.
With an estimated top speed of 600km/h (370mph) it is considerably faster than the previous jet-powered Geran-3, which had a top speed of less than 400km/h.
The increasing speed of Russian attack drones was cited by members of Ukraine’s small-fire mobile air defence teams – who deploy in pickup trucks with machine guns mounted on them to shoot down drones – to the Guardian last year as an increasing challenge as the window of time to shoot them down was getting smaller and smaller.
The Geran-5 has a range of just under 1,000km (620 miles) and can carry a 90kg payload. There has been speculation Russia hopes to extend the weapon’s range further still by delivering it mid-air from a manned jet.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a speech at the World Economic Forum this week that Russia appeared to be producing more drones – as many as 500 a day – and ballistic missiles than it was using in attacks. While Russia fired a record 810 drones against Ukraine in a single night in September, smaller daily air attacks are more typical.
“Russia has about 500 [more] Iranian drones each day and dozens of missiles, ballistic missiles,” Zelenskyy said at Davos. Such a figure would mark an almost trebling of Russian production at its factory in the Alabuga special economic zone from early last year when Ukrainian intelligence said about 170 drones a day were being produced.
Ukraine has also expressed concern that components identified in the new drones allegedly include parts from Germany and China, and microchips that appear to have been produced in the US.
The emergence of the Geran-5 marks an apparent change in emphasis in Russia’s drone warfare. While experts had been predicting ever larger numbers of daily drone attacks, the average number fired each day has become relatively stable at an average of a little over 170. Instead, according to a report produced by the Institute for Science and International Security this week, Moscow appears to be more focused on technological developments to beat Ukraine’s air defences.
The report said: “Presently, there has been an observed increase in the relative number of Shahed-type drones that are equipped with online video cameras and radio modems, as compared to the total number of such UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles].
“The implementation of such an upgrade necessitates the utilisation of specialised equipment and the presence of operators who have undergone the requisite training to effectively control Shahed-type drones. This phenomenon may also be one of the factors contributing to the observed limitation in the growth of the total number of launches.”
Among other innovations reported this year by the Ukrainian intelligence directorate have been Geran-2 drones that appear to have been equipped with portable anti-aircraft missiles apparently for use against Ukrainian aircraft attempting to shoot them down.
