Just before Christmas the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said of the Ukraine-Russian war, victory “is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means,” noting a possible slowdown of fighting provides “a window of opportunity for negotiation”. His comment was criticised by other observers and the Ukrainians, who clearly have momentum and morale on their side. Milley’s assessment suggested neither side has a dominant position and, when subsequently clarifying his remarks, he said: “Russia right now is on its back. … You want to negotiate … when you’re at strength and your opponent is at weakness”.
As discussed in Armed Forces & Society, deciding the right time to negotiate, or to press an advantage, is a key question in war. As the conflict enters its second year, Ukraine appears to have the momentum. But both sides face considerable time pressures that must be considered in their theories of victory.
Working with – or against – time has always been a feature of strategy in war. Nobody knows who will win this conflict (or what constitutes victory), but the passage of time — understood in military terms as endurance and exhaustion — can help assess its direction.
