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The Economic Times
The Economic Times

Rupee endures sharpest fall in over a month as Brent oil barrels towards $100

The Indian rupee logged its sharpest fall ​since late-July on Tuesday, pressured ​by a third straight day of rising oil prices ​that pushed Brent to near $100 a barrel as the ongoing Iran war deepened worries over sustained energy supply disruptions.

On the day, tensions rose following attacks by Yemen's ‌Iran-aligned Houthis ⁠on some ⁠energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and as Tehran threatened the United States with "economic warfare".

Singed ​by the pressure, the rupee declined to 94.8175 per dollar by the end ​of the session, down 0.35% from its previous close.

Traders said the dollar sales from state-run banks, most likely on behalf of the Reserve ​Bank of India, cushioned the currency's fall but ⁠did not ‌appear intended to anchor it to a specific level.

Persistent ​central bank ​interventions had helped drive the rupee higher to a ⁠more than two-month peak last week. However, that ​rally has run into resistance on account of a ​renewed rise in oil prices and still-elevated hedging demand from local importers.

Other emerging market currencies came under pressure on Tuesday as well, with both the Thai baht and South African Rand slipping about 0.4%.

Asian stocks fell, driving MSCI's gauge of regional stocks down about 1%. ‌Equities in Mumbai slipped 0.6%.

Analysts expect oil prices to remain a key variable for FX markets in the near ​term alongside how ​expectations for a ⁠U.S. rate hike evolve over the coming days. A key U.S. consumer inflation reading is due on Friday.

"We continue to think the bullish case ​for the dollar will prove stronger in the near term, although Friday's US CPI release remains a clear risk event," ING said in a note.

Markets are currently pricing in a chance of about 60% for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.

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