Pressure on Lucu for France
Much has been made of the fact Antoine Dupont could be back next week if given the all clear by the surgeon on Monday to resume contact training days after having surgery on a fractured cheekbone. Less attention has been paid to the fact that for that to be at all relevant, France still need to qualify and the easiest way to ensure that is to beat Italy on Friday evening. They can still go through if they lose, but the hosts will not want to be relying on bonus points.
France are not taking Italy for granted, despite the shellacking the Azzurri took in last week’s 96-17 defeat by the All Blacks. Their general sense seems to be that they couldn’t possibly play that bad a half as the first 40 in Lyon again.
For Maxime Lucu, deputising for Dupont, the match is laced with pressure. “My game is different to Antoine’s so there’s no comparison,” he said. “I’ve been trying to do that for the past 10 days, to manage the expectation, the pressure and the role I have to play. But above all, I want to enjoy the moment. “When you’re a substitute for Antoine, the captain and No 9, you’re prepared for [having little playing time].” The Azzurri have not beaten France in 10 years, but Les Bleus prevailed only 29-24 in the Six Nations in Rome this year.
France v Italy, OL Stadium, Friday 8pm (all times BST)
Samoa look to bounce back
There isn’t anything riding on this one for England, allowing Steve Borthwick to bed in some combinations before a probable quarter-final against Fiji. For Samoa, though, there’s the outside prospect of finishing third in the pool, and automatic qualification for 2027, should they manage to overcome England.
Seilala Mapusua, the head coach, has made nine changes for this game after the 28-22 defeat by Japan, including an overhaul of his pack and leaving former Wallaby Christian Leali’ifano on the bench in favour of former All Black Lima Sopoaga. Mapusua argued that Fiji’s surprise warm-up win over England had perhaps made things more difficult for Samoa, but added: “They were brilliantly Fijian. If anything, what we can take from that is when we play against England is to be unapologetically Samoan.”
Sopoaga, meanwhile, revealed that his plea for his favourite kicking tee to be returned earlier in the tournament has failed to be successful.
Let’s #FindTheTee
— dominic rumbles (@dominicrumbles) September 17, 2023
We will provide some #RWC2023 merch for the safe return of Lima’s tee https://t.co/fYrtTWH11V
“Whoever has got it I hope you can kick bloody goals with it,” said the 32-year-old. “I’ve been sent one that is similar from a kicking coach in England, his name is Alex Davies. He sent me an old one so it is kind of the same feel. I’ve taped it up and pretended it is the same one so hopefully I’m not shanking them on the weekend. If I am, then I am going to blame the tools!
“They say it takes 10,000 hours to become skilled at something and that thing has been with me since I was 14 years old. I have been all around the world, seen some things. It’s an extension of myself. It’s the first thing I pack before I pack my boots. I’d rather forget my boots than my kicking tee.”
England v Samoa, Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Saturday 4.45pm
Calculators at the ready …
“Fortunately we have Iain Henderson who is good at maths so we’re across everything as far as that’s concerned,” said Andy Farrell at Thursday’s team announcement when asked about the frankly baffling permutations for qualifying from Saturday evening’s final Pool B match that have dominated discussions this week. So if you see the lock mouthing something during play at the Stade de France, it might be how many points they need to score, not the next lineout call.
For the record (and stay with us here): going into the match, South Africa have 15 points, Ireland 14 and the Scots 10. If two teams finish level on points, the one who qualifies is the team that won the head-to-head match between the two. If three are level on top, well, let’s come to that in a minute, but the first determiner is points difference, and then the remaining two are split on their head-to-head result.
Ireland top the group if they win; they still top the group if they lose to Scotland by seven points or fewer and the Scots don’t get a try-scoring bonus point. They also top the group if they get a bonus point for losing by seven points or fewer and a try-scoring bonus point in a high-scoring match. Scotland go through if they win by eight points or more and Ireland don’t get a try-scoring bonus point, meaning Farrell’s side would go home on head-to-head.
And then there’s the obscure scenario that has been the talk of the media conferences this week, forcing the Boks, Scots and Irish to laugh off as ludicrous that the latter two might be “in cahoots” as Mike Catt put it.
If Scotland win with a try-scoring bonus point and Ireland also score four tries or more, all three teams would finish on 15 points. Then, it comes down in the first instance to points difference; if Scotland win the match by more than 21 points, they go through on points difference and Ireland go through on a better head-to-head record v South Africa. If Scotland do not get the points margin, then South Africa would go through on top of the group, and Scotland by virtue of winning the head to head over Ireland.
For all the permuations point by point, use this as a handy guide.
Ireland v Scotland, Stade de France, Saturday 8pm
Wales aim to avoid another Georgia shock
Wales know from painful experience exactly what Georgia are capable of. It was less than a year ago that Wales endured a calamity in Cardiff, losing 13-12 at the Principality Stadium as Georgia’s shock victory effectively signalled the end of Wayne Pivac’s coaching reign. It was an abject display, even allowing for Georgia’s impressive second-half performance when their forwards took charge and pummelled Wales into submission. Four of that starting XV will be in the lineup on Saturday – Louis Rees-Zammit, George North, Tomos Williams and Gareth Thomas – and while a repeat result looks highly unlikely, Wales know they must be on their guard.
Georgia are under no illusion about the size of their task. The victory over Wales was one reason they were expected to offer a genuine challenge in this World Cup; instead they are winless after defeats by Australia and, more narrowly, Fiji, and a draw against Portugal. Their captain, Merab Sharikadze, indicated Wales were nothing like the team they beat less than 12 months ago. “They are playing much, much better than they did last year in November and you can tell,” he said. “There is no other good result than winning even though we respect Wales, they are an awesome team.”
Wales v Georgia, Stade de la Beaujoire, Saturday 2pm
Japan look to summon Samurai spirit
This one is a bit easier in terms of permutations: winner takes all for the right to face Wales in the last eight in Marseille. Unless it’s a draw. Anyway, gloss over that for now. Japan’s team director, Yuichiro Fuji, revealed that the Brave Blossoms’ players had been turning to the spirit of the samurai for what is the most important game of the tournament for both teams.
“We have a day for attack and defence but instead of the coaches running them, the players present their game plans for the week,” Fuji said. “It was [prop Keita] Inagaki this week and he talked about how it’s going to be ‘Samurai time’ — where once we pull the sword out, it’s going to be do or die.”
Going deeper into this part of the country’s culture, Fuji said Japan had to “drop our katana” — the word for sword in Japanese — on Argentina to defeat them. Argentina and Japan both have nine points, five adrift of already-qualified England in Pool D. Only two teams qualify and England have already won the pool. The Pumas have a far superior points difference to Japan so have a slight upper hand in case of a draw, although bonus points could come into play.
Japan v Argentina, Stade de la Beaujoire, Sunday noon
Cava on ice for Fiji
One point. Just one. That will do for Fiji to reach a quarter-final against England in Marseille next weekend. If the Pacific islanders have been everyone’s favourite second team in France, then surely Portugal must be running them close. The European side drew with Georgia, who gave Fiji a horrible fright for most of last weekend’s game, and have lit up the tournament with their unapologetic free-flowing style.
Eddie Jones joked about lending his Fijian-born players his credit card to buy their team some midweek cava in the hope of helping Australia who need Portugal to win without Fiji getting a bonus point. The reply from Fiji’s Australian assistant coach, Brad Harris, this week? “We will take Eddie’s credit card after we beat Portugal. Pass that back to Eddie, we’ll take his credit card to buy some cava for our team function.” Fiji have had a wobble but their focus is absolute.
Fiji v Portugal, Stadium de Toulouse, Sunday 8pm
Tonga hope to make a point
Neither side has a point so this is the big chance for them to record one in the first time the nations have met at a Rugby World Cup. Tonga’s defence coach, Dale McLeod, reflected on the limited game time they get against tier one nations in between World Cups and how they had grown progressively stronger in France week by week against Ireland, Scotland and South Africa.
“It is so critical for the development and retention and recruitment of Tongan players, representing their country, to play the best in the world,” he said. “You can see if we were playing another tier-one team next week we’d be right in the fight. We came over [to Europe] last year, we played four Tests but never got to play against a tier one. You look at Fiji and Samoa, they have been pretty proactive around that, they consistently each year get some tier one. That is a little bit of World Rugby but that’s also a little bit of Tonga and their connections and interactions.”
Tonga v Romania, Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Sunday 4.45pm
