Speaking in New York during the UN General Assembly, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said the island's lack of investor certainty is a bigger obstacle than U.S. law.
For investors weighing Cuba's opening, the signal is blunt: Washington sees the reforms as unproven, and a 30-year-old statute still limits what American firms can do.
Rubio's $10 Million Test
Rubio framed the problem with a hypothetical. Why would a Spanish businessman commit $10 million if, two years on, the government could rewrite the rules, keep the money and never repay him? He said that scenario has played out in Cuba repeatedly.
He was equally dismissive of the new reforms, saying they exist only on paper and must be both implemented and maintained. His verdict, per the State Department transcript: "No one is going to invest in Cuba under their current governance model."
He also left a door open. The administration is prepared to be helpful, he said, if Havana grasps what he called a golden opportunity for political and economic change.
Helms-Burton: The Law Rubio Says Binds Washington
Rubio stressed that U.S. Cuba policy is written into statute, not set by executive preference. President Clinton signed the Helms-Burton Act on March 12, 1996, and its first title codified the embargo that dated back to the Kennedy era.
Its most controversial section, Title III, lets U.S. nationals sue anyone who profits from property Cuba seized after 1959. Presidents suspended it for decades, until the Trump administration allowed lawsuits to begin on May 2, 2019.
Rubio said American companies could play a real role in a future Cuba with a free and open economy. He added that the Cuban diaspora and firms from other countries could contribute too. Under current conditions, he said, none of it is feasible.
Havana's Reform Blitz
Cuba's own message is that it is already changing. On June 18, the National Assembly unanimously approved 176 measures covering 23 strategic areas. Among them:
- Foreign investors no longer have to partner with a state enterprise.
- Private banks are authorized for the first time since before the revolution.
- Private firms can grow beyond the old size cap.
- Investors, domestic and foreign, may buy stakes in state-owned companies,
President Miguel Díaz-Canel used the same session to reaffirm Cuba's commitment to socialism.
Paper Versus Practice
Legal analysts share part of Rubio's skepticism. A Columbia-affiliated review of the package notes that approvals above a set threshold still go through the Council of State or Council of Ministers, at officials' discretion. The reforms left that structure untouched.
The same review points to a warning from Cuba's own record. A 2014 investment law promised faster approvals, yet one of the island's largest Western investors went years accumulating hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid receivables from state partners.
Cuban officials are still moving. A July decree sped up approvals for foreign-capital ventures, and a rewrite of the Foreign Investment Law is slated for the National Assembly's November session. The same report says tangible results have yet to materialize.
John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, has called the changes a positive trajectory but warned that their durability depends on a constitutional amendment the government has not made.
Where Money Is Already Moving
Not everyone is waiting. American investors are bidding for the Cuban mining business of Canada's Sherritt International, a joint venture with the Cuban government that the company abandoned because of U.S. sanctions. Asked about such pitches, Rubio said he knows some firms and individuals want in but that it is not possible now.
What to Watch
Three markers will show whether Rubio's pessimism holds:
- The November session: whether the rewritten Foreign Investment Law removes discretionary approvals or keeps them.
- Constitutional changes: whether Havana moves beyond decrees to guarantees that survive a change in leadership.
- Washington's response: whether the "helpful" offer turns into concrete negotiating terms, or Congress revisits Helms-Burton.
Until then, the message to boardrooms from both sides of the Florida Straits is the same: the rules have changed on paper, but no one has yet shown they will hold.
