A meteorologist deals with ever-changing data. The job is to look at the available information and present what might happen.
It's not an exact science. People get mad when their television meteorologist gets things wrong, but the reality is that predicting the weather isn't something we have mastered with great precision.
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Usually, as a storm gets closer certainties start to lock in. In the case of Hurricane Milton, as it gets close to making landfall in Florida, we still do not know exactly what its path will be.
That's something Royal Caribbean Chief Meteorologist Craig Setzer explained in his latest X post.
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Image source: Craig Setzer
Royal Caribbean's chief meteorologist has bad news
"Tuesday morning finds a mean-looking Major Hurricane Milton. I rarely attribute emotions to storms (they are processes in the atmosphere), but this one looks mean," Setzer wrote,
That was a prelude to the meteorologist delivering some bleak news.
"And there is no good news this morning as the storm is a large category 4 headed toward Florida's west coast," he said. "While the track has moved little, soon little details like wobbles will begin to make a big difference between who gets the worst surge, the worst winds, the worst flooding rainfall."
Setzer did make one point about how the hurricane might weaken.
"Another thing we will be watching [is: When] will the wind shear increase enough to start a substantial weakening trend?" he wrote.
"We hope it will be before landfall to at least take a little edge off the storm's destructive impacts, but it may not happen until after the storm is ashore. Regardless, for West and Central Florida, prepare like you have rarely prepared before."
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Setzer followed that with an added warning.
"For those doing last-minute preps and evacuations, there will be an elevated threat for supercells & associated tornadoes along the west coast of Florida ahead of Milton beginning late tonight through Wednesday evening. Keep that in mind as it will likely add to additional local warnings," he added.
Supercells are particularly strong and long-lasting thunderstorms.
Update 10/8 12:06 p.m.:
"Almost the entire state of Florida except the panhandle is under some type of tropical/hurricane warning. Warnings are issued about 36 hours before tropical storm force winds arrive because that's when most emergency response and preparation activities cease," Setzer Tweeted.
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