The home stretch of the Major League Baseball season starts on Friday night with a host of action between postseason contending teams.
All eyes will be on the matchup out west between AL West foes Astros and Mariners as Houston look to continue to try and erase a slow start to the season and chase down Seattle. Can the Astros win as small undredogs on the road?
Here's our betting thoughts on every game on the Friday night slate with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+120)
Arizona comes out of the All-Star break to restart its pursuit to return to the postseason in Chicago against the Cubs.
While Justin Steele is in good form at the moment, posting an ERA below 2.00 since the beginning of June (eight starts), the D-Backs are a top five hitting team against lefties in terms of OPS.
I’ll take the big price on Arizona.
Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-155)
Martin Perez of the Pirates stands little chance against the Phillies offense that is sixth in the big leagues against left handed pitching in terms of OPS. Perez has been crushed by hard contact (20th percentile) and has an xERA in the fourth percentile (5.79).
The Phillies offense will be paced by the steady Aaron Nola (3.38 ERA, 3.28 xERA), as well as its vaunted offense.
Reds vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (-120)
In a near-coin flip matchup, I’ll fade Patrick Corbin, who remains among the worst in Major League Baseball.
Corbin has the highest xBA of any qualified starter in the bigs, allowing a sky high .316 this season, as well as ranking in the second percentile in hard-hit percentage.
I’ll fade him at all costs.
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (+140)
I’ll fade Gerrit Cole and the Yankees, who continue to be priced as an elite team that it hasn’t been in over a month now.
Further, Cole hasn’t shown his Cy Young form just yet after starting the year on the injured list. He is striking out only 25% of starters in five starts with an ERA of 5.40. While he will improve as the season goes on, his xERA is 4.66, I’ll wait to see it first.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (+100)
Jack Flaherty will be an attractive arm in the trade market over the next few weeks, posting an xERA of 2.91 that ranks in the 89th percentile while striking out more than 32% of batters.
I like him to keep rolling against a limited Blue Jays lineup and a regression bound Chris Bassitt, who has an xERA of 4.24, far higher than his ERA of 3.52.
Mets vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-135)
The Mets second half push starts in Miami, and I expect it to start with a win against the Marlins, who can’t hit left-handed pitching.
Sean Manaea has been rock solid this season with a potent fast ball, and the Marlins are hitting .225 against southpaws, third worst in the bigs.
New York should roll.
Padres vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (+120)
Both of these teams were thrilled to get to the All-Star break. These two were among the bottom three in batting average in the month of July, so it’s worth monitoring how each team will respond on Friday and beyond.
With that in mind, I’ll take the shot on the underdog Padres, who will hope it can find its stride at the plate, but also continue to get some production from Matt Waldron, who has a 3.71 ERA with a strong hard-hit percentage (86th percentile).
I’ll take the big price on the underdog.
Cardinals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cardinals (+105)
Sonny Gray presents a serious pitching advantage for the Cardinals as the team heads to Atlanta.
He is punching out 30% of batters (91st percentile) and limiting walks to a meager six percent of the time (78th percentile), which is impactful against a dangerous Braves lineup that has the ability to string together hits.
However, with rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, the Braves can be vulnerable as he has struggled to find his fastball thus far.
Orioles vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (+110)
I’ll back Texas as home underdogs on Friday with Nathan Eovaldi on the mound.
The Rangers starter has been solid all season with a great blend of pitches – he ranks in the 94th percentile in terms of run value – which is impactful against a talented Orioles lineup.
While Corbin Burnes is putting up a Cy Young season in his first year with the O’s, the Rangers offense has been starting to put it together, hitting .259 in the month of July (10th in the bigs).
White Sox vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-210)
Kansas City has slipped out of the Wild Card race, but remains within striking distance due to its glistening home record.
KC is 31-18 at Kauffman Stadium and 25-13 as a favorite. I expect the team to have little issue getting past the White Sox on Friday.
Giants vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rockies (+125)
Colorado will be at Coors Field, which typically equalizes the playing field for offensive advantages.
I fancy the Rockies on Friday night as the team grades out as a big league average club against lefties, 16th in batting average, and will draw a matchup against the struggling Kyle Harrison, who is 10th in hard-hit percentage and ninth in average exit velocity.
With friendly hitting conditions, I’ll take the underdog price.
Angels vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick
Pick: Athletics (-110)
In a projected coin flip between two of the worst teams in the big leagues, I’ll take the home team, especially when facing Griffin Canning.
Canning rates in the 14th percentile in terms of xERA with a seventh percentile strikeout percentage. He gets little movement on his pitches, 14th in terms of run value, and can’t be trusted at this price, even against Oakland.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-130)
The Red Sox have pushed into the center of the AL Wild Card conversation, but restart its postseason pursuit out west against the vaunted Dodgers, who will start impressive rookie Gavin Stone on Friday night.
While Nick Pivetta has strong underlying metrics that indicate he should be getting better results, including a 3.74 xERA vs. a 4.18 ERA, he does rank in the 12th percentile in terms of barrel percentage and is a predominantly flyball pitcher, fourth percentile.
That’s an issue against a team like the Dodgers, who tops the big leagues in OPS.
Astros vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Astros (-105)
Houston is still chasing Seattle atop the AL West, and I expect the difference between each teams offense to make a difference in this matchup as I like the Astros as slight underdogs.
Hunter Brown has been on a tear on the mound, lowering his ERA from 6.18 at the end of May to 4.50, and better days ahead with a 3.48 xERA. I believe he can go toe-to-toe with Luis Castillo of the Mariners while the Astros offense proves to be the difference.
On the season, Houston ranks eighth in OPS on the year while the Mariners are 28th.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Astros Start Second Half in Style vs. Mariners).
