In betting, they say the house always wins. It’s the notion that over the long-term, no matter what you do, the institution will get you in the end. In college football, as long as Nick Saban is the head coach at Alabama, the house will always win. The Tide will not turn against the preeminent power of this era of college football history.
This season did not start brightly for Bama, and this is not one of Saban’s better teams, and yet here they are in the playoff. Its most certainly the Tide team that has battled through the most adversity to get to a position to return to the mountaintop in the Saban era. Now they return to where their era of dominance began: the Rose Bowl. And what a matchup it will be against Michigan, who has had its own roller-coaster, off-the-field sideshow with the sign-stealing investigation running parallel to its dominance on the field.
Storyline you’re already tired of: Who actually belonged in this game opposite Michigan.
There will be gnashing of the teeth and there will be statements, one wonders if there even might be lawyers when all is said and done. Florida State has a deeply compelling case to be playing in this game over Alabama as an undefeated Power conference champion. Alabama will point to its growth over the course of the season (conveniently ignoring that it needed a 4th-and-31 prayer to beat a 6–6 Auburn team on rivalry weekend). They will say that the fact that FSU’s offense is comparably worse without the injured Jordan Travis is proper justification to leave FSU out. There will be arguing about the real definition of best vs. most deserving. When college football devolves into a beauty contest there are no winners, but it is inevitable that will happen with a committee system. There’ll be a robust debate between 12 and 13 once the system expands next year, but that doesn’t help Florida State in 2023.
Key matchup to watch: Michigan’s wide receivers vs. the Alabama secondary.
Michigan’s season essentially boiled down to the last five games of its season after it treated Weeks 1 through 8 like preseason scrimmages. The best defense it faced, Penn State, couldn’t force Michigan into a passing affair. Neither could Ohio State really. There’s a lot we don’t know about how Michigan’s wide receivers will stand up to the test. Enter a secondary with Caleb Downs, Kool-Aid McKinstry (provided he clears concussion protocol) and Terrion Arnold. There are few stiffer challenges, if any, than what Bama brings to the table on the back end.
Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports;John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports
Underrated X-factor: Michigan TE Colston Loveland
In the Ohio State game, Loveland proved just how dangerous he could be if you don’t account for him. He was the engine through which Michigan’s passing offense ran through with five receptions and 88 yards. The Tide have proven that they can keep the lid on the best tight end in the sport, limiting the damage Georgia’s Brock Bowers could do in the SEC championship game. Will they have the same fortunes against Loveland?
Alabama wins if: The Tide can stay in two-high coverages on defense
Saban said after the SEC championship game that the Tide got out of a defensive structure with only one safety deep once Georgia marched down the field on the first drive of the game. Bama’s front stood tall against the Georgia run game all day and was able to do it with two safeties deep (meaning fewer players closer to the line of scrimmage). A probable game plan will be Bama’s defense forcing Michigan to prove it is as adept in the run game as it purports itself to be with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. If Bama can stay in two-high coverages in the Rose Bowl and make J.J. McCarthy throw to beat them, is he up to the task?
Michigan wins if: The Wolverines can force Jalen Milroe into mistakes
When the ball is in Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s hands, the question isn’t whether you can stop him, it’s if you can hope to contain him as a runner. But as a passer, Milroe can make mistakes and put the ball in harm’s way. He’s gotten better over the course of the season, but if it is the Tide that have to chase in an aerial duel, are they good enough to pull that off with a passing game that doesn’t test the intermediate parts of the field too often?
