If styles of play make fights in the college football semifinals, the Rose Bowl is more likely than the Sugar Bowl to be three yards and a cloud of dust.
Alabama and Michigan may not have the explosive offenses that Texas and Washington do, but what they bring to the table will be plenty entertaining in Pasadena for the football purists among us. How will it play out? We asked coaches who have game-planned for both what they think about how each unit matches up.
Alabama offense vs. Michigan defense
Talking to coaches who have faced Nick Saban’s Alabama and those who haven’t, one opinion has a consensus: “It’s his best coaching job ever,” says one opposing SEC staffer who has faced the Tide multiple times. It’s because this team is seen as having done more with less. The Tide are not regarded as elite at any position besides defensive back, and yet here they are, one game away from a national title after being put into the field over Florida State by the committee.
This was the Tide’s figure-it-out season, and it seemed like they were building the plane as they were flying it on offense. It started with an early loss to Texas and Jalen Milroe being held out of the USF game (Saban prefers you don’t call it a benching) the next week in a sluggish 17–3 win that was very much in doubt late in the second half and had many starting to believe the Crimson Tide dynasty was indeed on the rocks.
That was the first part of Alabama’s season, according to one opposing coach. Milroe’s reinstatement for the Ole Miss game through the next few weeks was the second portion where it was clear Bama could at least have some success with a vertical passing game in the win over Texas A&M (321 passing yards). That second portion went right up through about halftime of the Tennessee game that went to halftime with the Tide trailing 20–7 at home. Milroe helped engineer the comeback, and the next week against LSU showcased just how electric he could be with the ball in his hands, to the tune of 155 yards rushing and four touchdowns on the ground. The Tide started to round into form on offense and, after squeaking out the Auburn game thanks to fourth-and-31, won the SEC title over Georgia.
Evaluations of Milroe’s game have familiar beats: His strength is not throwing the ball into the intermediate parts of the field, but his arm has a lot of power behind it and does pose a significant threat to any defense, especially that of Michigan, which has proved adept at keeping the lid on explosive plays. He is not considered deadly accurate, and it’s one thing that isn’t likely to change about his game even with multiple weeks off. There were times early in the season, according to one opposite assistant, that it felt like Alabama was jamming a square peg into a round hole and not maximizing what makes him special. Now they’re an offense that in basketball parlance hits layups (short throws) and three-pointers (deep throws) without much efficiency in the midrange game. And when all else fails, his legs can make them right.
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“I felt he wanted to be a pocket passing quarterback because ultimately—and I get it—he’s fighting that narrative of what happened to Lamar Jackson when he was getting drafted,” the staffer says. “But if he would just take off and run and you use his athletic ability to extend plays, you’d be so much better.”
While Tommy Rees is the offensive coordinator, the unit itself has not changed much from what the Tide were running with Bill O’Brien at the helm last year. The biggest difference is the drop-off from Mac Jones and Bryce Young to Milroe as a pure passer. Milroe is regarded as the only Alabama skill player who truly scared one assistant coach who faced the Tide. While running back Jase McClellan is reliable, wideout Jermaine Burton is a significant vertical threat and Isaiah Bond has top-end speed, they lack the ability of recent elite Bama receiving corps and aren’t likely to be first-round picks in the NFL draft. They’re also not regarded as phenomenal on the offensive line, especially in pass protection (second-most sacks allowed in the SEC).
They face a Michigan defense that remains formidable after its full metamorphosis out of the Don Brown era of plenty of man coverage and blitzes. The Wolverines are no longer predictable. One Big Ten coordinator says they have just enough changeup pitches to keep you on your toes. Up front, a defining factor of how they play involves each defensive lineman routinely playing two-gaps along the line of scrimmage instead of shooting aggressively through one all the time. It’s relatively a more reactive type of defense, but it takes a well-drilled unit.
“If you’re going to two-gap, you’ve got to play great with your hands,” the coordinator says. “They attack blocks well and they beat blocks very well because they play very well fundamentally with their hands.”
What makes Michigan unique is how deep they are up front. As an opposing offensive coordinator says, you have to worry about “all three sets of D-linemen.” Michigan has nine defensive lineman who have played more than 211 snaps this season, and it has many different combinations of defensive linemen, depending on what the situation calls for. That will be key against an Alabama offensive front that has proved leaky in pass protection, which is important if the Tide are going to get their deep balls completed.
Michigan’s defense is built to make opposing offenses sustain drives by limiting the explosive play and forcing the offense to methodically work the ball down the field.
“You gotta run eight to 12 perfect plays all the way down the field to score, and, you know, that’s damn near impossible,” the opposing offensive coordinator says.
Opposing offenses don’t get very far against Michigan, which did not face a goal-to-go possession until its 10th game of the season. But there is a chicken-and-egg aspect to the Wolverines in how good their defense really is over the course of the season and the question of opposing offense quality. Alabama played only three offenses in the bottom half of ESPN’s SP+ rankings. Michigan played nine that were 86th or worse, but did stifle Penn State and hold Ohio State to 24 points.
One coach actually thinks that Michigan could be attacked by the Tide’s offense if it is willing to up its tempo to keep the Wolverines on their toes and limit their substitutions up front. But he also cautions that if the Tide fails, they’d be playing right into Michigan’s hands because of what it wants to do on offense.
Michigan offense vs. Alabama defense
Michigan’s offense may seem simple in theory: It wants to be a team that hangs its hat on a slobberknocker run game (ask Penn State) and use play action to get to its vertical passing game due to the presence of its run threat with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. It uses different presentations out of various formations to get to the same staple plays. And it’s formidable up front, which is a credit to offensive coordinator and interim head coach Sherrone Moore.
One way Michigan hides what it is doing is by using where it is on the field. An opposing defensive coach says he spent an “inordinate” amount of time preparing for the opening play of Michigan drives, especially following a kickoff that goes for a touchback, because the Wolverines often request the ball spotted in the middle of the field when they assume possession. The reason lies in the dimension of a college football field. When the ball is on one hash or the other, many college defenses align their fronts and their coverages to the field (wide side) or the boundary (short side). If the ball is on the right hash marks in college football, there are nearly 30 yards between the ball and the left sideline and 20 yards between the ball and the right sideline, a considerable difference.
When the ball is in the middle of the field, there isn’t an obvious field or boundary side, so the quarterback’s throwing side is typically a default. In those situations, Michigan is adept at catching defenses off guard with motions and attacking where a defense is structurally weak, getting players like Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson into space.
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Stylistically, how Alabama’s defense matches up against Michigan will be fascinating. In the SEC championship game, after being knifed through by Georgia while playing a coverage with only one safety deep (typically strong against the run, in theory), Bama went to two safeties deep (comparably weaker against the run, in theory) and still stymied the Dawgs. Similar to the skill on offense, Dallas Turner, Justin Eboigbe, Tim Smith and Chris Braswell may not be the elite talent Bama used to have, according to some coaches who have faced the Tide, but they are still getting the job done. One SEC offensive line coach says they’re always where they’re supposed to be and don’t make mistakes. The Tide also aren’t too blitz-heavy and can get pressure with only four rushers, devoting more bodies to coverage. Can they do that against the Wolverines and still be effective?
“I’m still a big believer, and the SEC is a different league,” the assistant says. “Sorry, call me biased, but the physicality at the line of scrimmage, it’s different. So you know, yeah, I do think they can.”
And if they can limit Michigan in the run game, we may finally get a chance to answer the biggest outstanding question about Michigan: Can J.J. McCarthy put this team on his back and pilot this passing attack to do enough to win?
“I don’t know if it's ‘Can J.J. do enough?’ it’s ‘Can the receivers do enough?’” says an opposing Big Ten assistant coach. “Can the tight ends do enough against Alabama’s personnel? That Roman Wilson kid’s a good player. After that, who is going to give Alabama problems in the pass game? Alabama has seen plenty of guys like Roman Wilson. They can deal with him.”
The SEC assistant calls freshman safety Caleb Downs the best defensive player they’d played all year. That’s before he mentioned how good corners Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Malachi Moore are. There is no doubt that Michigan hasn’t faced anything close to what they bring to the table in the secondary.
“I think [McCarthy] is very, very smart,” the opposing Big Ten assistant coach says. “I think he has that football moxy to him. And I think he is a way better athlete than people give him credit for. It will not surprise me if at the combine he runs a sub-4.6 [40-yard dash]. I don’t think he has truly a cannon for an arm, but he’s got a strong arm and he makes good decisions. He protects the football and he protects his team. That’s a huge superpower.”
While Milroe is great at throwing the ball deep, McCarthy is at his best throwing in the intermediate parts of the field, which takes timing and accuracy. Michigan’s passing game often gives him options at multiple levels down the field with how the routes distribute, and he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way (four interceptions all season, with three coming in one game).
It’s hard to find many observers who think Michigan wins in anything other than a close game. “I would be very confused. I would be baffled. I mean, I wouldn’t even know where to start,” another SEC assistant says when asked how he’d react to a Michigan blowout victory. When it comes to predicting Alabama’s chances, multiple coaches point to the fact that Alabama is just inevitable.
“It’s the culture, man,” an SEC assistant says. “I know everyone’s rolling their eyes when they hear that, but they just have a winning culture. They find a way.”
If Michigan can win, it’ll prove the team can bang with the best not just in the Big Ten, but anywhere in the country in this particularly big spot. The Wolverines are 0–2 in the playoff semifinals after being blown out by Georgia and upset by TCU. For the Tide, perhaps Alabama’s demise was greatly exaggerated.
