At the vast Sharm el-Sheikh venue in Egypt, Rod Oram hears a strong vow to put right the wrongs of the world. But it is not, sadly, the final word from the climate summit – that will be bland and unprogressive.
“There is clearly a breakdown in trust between North and South, and between developed and emerging economies,” UN Secretary General António Guterres told the COP27 climate negotiations as soon as he arrived back on Thursday from the G20 summit in Bali.
His pithy analysis, as accurate as ever, cut through all the obfuscations and diplomatese that Egypt, as host and president of COP27, and many other countries are using to gloss over their inertia in these critical last few days of negotiations.
He was equally clear on how to rebuild trust.
First, “by finding an ambitious and credible agreement on loss and damage and financial support to developing countries.”
Second, “I appeal to all parties to forcefully address the huge emissions gap. The 1.5 target is not simply about keeping a goal alive – it’s about keeping people alive.”
History offers little comfort that nations will rise to his challenge over the next 48 hours. Yes, a few COPs over the years have achieved remarkable breakthroughs at the last moment, such as at Paris in 2015.
But many more COPs labour to produce only a patchwork of commitments cobbled hastily together. A few are abject failures, as was COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009.
The tell-tale signs at this COP are unpromising. Egypt’s latest so-called ‘non-paper’ summarising themes that might end up in the final agreement runs to 20 pages of bullet points. This is an unusually long and vague document for this late in the negotiating process. Masochists can read it here.
Moreover, the top two topics in loss and damage, the bland rubric for the devastation developing countries are suffering from extreme climate events, are both covered by this short sentence: {Placeholder for relevant outcomes from the ongoing negotiations}
The two topics are finance, and other support mechanisms to help developing countries cope with loss and damage. Yet, rich and poor countries remain far apart on solutions and action.
“The disagreement is rooted in whether to work out a process that could lead to a financial arrangement in 2024, or to establish a financial facility or fund now and work through the details in the next two years. Developed countries support the former and developing countries the latter,” Earth Negotiations Bulletin, the official external reporter at COPs, wrote in its latest daily summary.
Basically, keep talking; or commit now. No wonder distrust between the Global North and Global South is running so high.
Among parties exacerbating the tensions, the EU’S climate chief Frans Timmermans said on Wednesday: “We are open for this [finance] facility, but under certain conditions. And added: “China is one of the biggest economies on the planet with a lot of financial strength. Why should they not be made co-responsible for funding loss and damage?”
In other developments yesterday, the Global Methane Pledge offered an update on progress since its launch at COP26 in Glasgow last year. The number of signatories has risen to some 150 countries, including New Zealand which signed in Glasgow.
But their commitment to a 30 percent reduction in methane by 2030 is non-binding. Only 50 of the signatories have unveiled detailed strategies for reducing methane, which is some 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide.
NZ’s goal is for only a 10 percent cut in the greenhouse gas; and is still lacking set strategies as negotiations continue with the farming sector, responsible for most methane emissions.
Our farming sector also tries to divert attention from the Global Pledge by claiming it's focused on oil and gas, not agriculture. But the update included programmes to help African farmers reduce their methane emissions; and later yesterday, the US and EU were due to unveil methane mitigation plans that included agriculture and waste too.
Ahead of COP27, there was some hope that China, the world’s largest methane emitter, might join. But instead it announced its own lesser plan. India, another larger emitter, also remains outside the pact.
Yesterday, also hosted the People’s Plenary. This two-hour opportunity for civil society to air its demands and hopes, its grievances and fears has been an officially UN-sanctioned event at COPs in recent years.
This year, the speakers from NGOs drew a capacity crowd of 1,000 delegates, with many others turned away for lack of seats. It was held in the Ramses plenary room, named after one of the most famous of Egyptian Pharaohs.
Indeed, the setting was quasi-pharaonic. The vast room is one of a multitude in the marbled and gilded Tonino Lamborghini International Convention Center at Sharm el-Sheikh where the core COP negotiations are taking place.
Opened this January, it’s the first such centre by Tonino Lamborghini, the heir to the famous maker of exotic supercars and mundane tractors. He’s added it to his portfolio of hotels and luxury goods that he runs separately from the family business.
Though the setting of the People’s Plenary was fantastic, the speeches were deeply grounded in the harsh realities of the climate crisis. Particularly, its escalating impacts -- environmental, economic, social and cultural – on individuals and communities around the world. Harm which even the wealthiest are beginning to feel.
This plenary “takes place because we feel we aren’t properly engaged throughout” the summit, said Stephen Smellie, a UK trade union official and a delegate to COP27. “We have to have our own meeting to make sure the messages from trade unions, women, indigenous communities and others are heard. We don’t get space in the other discussions. We get closed out.”
After, the string of impassioned speeches, the attendees streamed out of the Ramses room chanting their demands to an outdoor assembly place nearby. There a young woman at the head of the march read the People’s Plenary Declaration, full of demands to right the wrongs that people and planet are suffering.
By comparison, the official COP27 closing statement, however successful the frantic last burst of negotiations might be, will be a paltry thing of platitudes and promises.
