Robinhood’s NFL Parlay Push Could Turn Prediction Markets Into a Real Revenue Engine

When you think of financial sector stocks, companies like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) are likely to come to mind. 

But since its initial public offering on July 29, 2021, perhaps no fintech company has differentiated itself from the pack more than Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD). 

The financial services company may be best known for its mobile-first brokerage platform, a favorite among retail investors, which aims to "democratize finance for all," according to the company. 

But now Robinhood is looking to expand beyond equities and derivatives by setting its sights on the NFL prop bet and parlay market, immediately emerging as a competitor to online sportsbooks including Hard Rock Bet, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), and Flutter Entertainment’s (NYSE: FLUT) FanDuel.

Sports Betting Has Become Very Big Business

Since its federal legalization in 2018, online sports betting is the fastest growing sector of gambling. Now legal in 35 states and Washington, D.C., the rise of betting apps allows users to place wagers around the clock. 

The combination of mobile technology and convenience has been a major growth driver, with younger Americans flocking to online sportsbooks. 

With the NFL and college football playoffs quickly approaching, this acts as a short-term catalyst, and Robinhood wants in on the action. 

According to industry consultancy firm Grand View Research, the sports betting market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2025 to 2030, from approximately $100 billion to more than $187 billion over the forecast period.

With the NFL and college football playoffs quickly approaching, this acts as a short-term catalyst, and Robinhood wants in on the action. 

Robinhood’s Foray Into Prediction Markets

The move into prop bets and parlays builds on the back of the company’s success with prediction markets—Robinhood’s fastest-growing product. 

That feature gives users the ability to place bets not only on sports events but also things like who will win the Grammy for Song of the Year, how many subscribers Mr. Beast will have by the end of the year, and who is most likely to host Saturday Night Live during its 51st season.  

But sports remain the big draw, especially for Robinhood’s target demographic of young and often first-time investors. JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international, told CNBC that users can currently trade preset combinations for the outcome of, point totals, and spreads of individual NFL games. And, beginning in 2026, they will have the ability to create custom combos (e.g., parlays) across NFL games. 

CNBC also reported that, as a business segment, Robinhood is already seeing the top-line benefits of its prediction markets feature, which is on pace to become a $300 million revenue driver in 2025. In November alone, the platform saw more than 3 billion prediction market contracts traded, which was a 20% increase over October. 

Bolstered Revenue Could Produce More Consistent Results  

With the expansion of its prediction market offerings, Robinhood is looking to bolster its top line with the hopes of producing more consistency from an earnings perspective. Over the past five quarters, the company has missed on earnings per share (EPS) expectations twice.

At the same time, Robinhood has missed on revenue just once. But that one miss was a big one, with analysts expecting around $930 million in quarterly revenue in Q4 2024, but the company only reporting $637 million—a miss of 31.50%. 

And while net income turned positive last year for the first time since the company went public, its $556 million in Q3 net income paled in comparison to the $916 million it saw in profit in Q4 2024. 

Similarly, net cash from operating activities, which reached $3.509 billion in Q2 of this year, turned into a loss of $1.576 billion in Q3—a nearly 145% decrease. 

In that vein, Robinhood’s success with and subsequent expansion of its prediction markets platform could be the key to posting more consistent financial results in 2026 and beyond. 

Despite Eye-Catching Gains in 2025, HOOD Remains Attractively Rated

Still, despite those mixed results, the stock has had an exceptional run this year.

HOOD is up nearly 205% in 2025, and that momentum could carry into the new year as more users are drawn to the app’s suite of features and away from competitors like Hard Rock Bet, DraftKings and FanDuel.

Analysts still see more than 14% potential upside over the next 12 months for the stock, with shares receiving a Moderate Buy rating.

The stock boasts incredibly high institutional ownership of more than 93%, while short interest is currently tepid at 5.78% of the float.

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