Arsenal’s interest in Kai Havertz has created plenty of division regarding the link. Many see the player as another ‘Chelsea reject’ that the Gunners would be spending huge money on.
Whilst others point out the clear potential that was on display at Bayer Leverkusen and how the German international managed to stand out in what was a dreadful Chelsea season in 2022/23. But what is the reality?
One way to look at how Havertz has performed is to take a look at how he compares to similar players in his position. Havertz's best role is something which is widely debated and where he would fit in at Arsenal is equally puzzling.
That said, at Leverkusen, he thrived playing in an attacking midfield and false nine roles. With that in mind, and the likelihood that Arsenal would see Havertz as a forward to offer Gabriel Jesus, who occupies a false nine role in Mikel Arteta’s system, competition.
The obvious Premier League example of a false nine has been Roberto Firmino at Liverpool. Abroad, Paulo Dybala has been playing in the second striker position supporting Tammy Abraham and has also featured as a centre-forward too.
It’s also worth looking into Havertz’s final season with Bayer Leverkusen in 2019/20 which earned him the big-money move to Chelsea. In that season he scored 12 goals and notched six assists compared to the seven goals and one assist he recorded last season.
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Havertz's final Leverkusen season matched exactly Dybala’s goals and assists from this campaign and Roberto Firmino managed 11 goals and four assists in a relatively restricted season of just over 1,200 minutes. Interestingly, despite the five-goal dip from Havertz in the two assessed seasons, his xG increased from 9.1 to 11.6 according to FBRef.
There’s a clear dip in how clinical his finishing is and this is likely down to form and confidence in a Chelsea team that have struggled. It’s evident he needs a refresh and perhaps Arsenal can provide it.
The same can be said regarding his take-on success which this season is 28.3% compared to an impressive 47.9% in 19/20 which is better than both Jesus (39.6%) and Dybala (42.2%) from this season. A similar story follows with shot-creating actions per 90 in which Havertz saw his 19/20 tally of 4.47 drop to 2.21; compared to the 22/23 tallies of Firmino (3.41) Gabriel Jesus (3.62) and Dybala (5.39).
Defensively Havertz's contributions have improved since the Premier League switch. He won 0.22 tackles per 90 in 19/20 compared to 0.56 in 22/23. However, these numbers do still tally below that of Firmino (0.89) and Gabriel Jesus (1.09). For interceptions per 90, the trend continues: improving from 0.07 three years ago to 0.25 last season; but again Firmino (0.52) Dybala (0.41) and Jesus (0.48) were all better.
It's a mixed bag, to put it frankly. Havertz’s ability this season has been hamstrung by the environment he’s playing in, but there remains a serious risk with the potential money involved that it doesn’t work out.
Arsenal will need to weigh up this risk and proceed accordingly. In addition, they’re hoping to complete a deal for Declan Rice and so investments in different positions need to be considered.
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