Undoubtedly, Everton are strong favourites to win the desperate scrap for safety at the foot of the Premier League, but believe me, it’s no formality.
I know, because I have inside information. I went down to the Leeds training ground this week, to have a look at how Sam Allardyce and his coaching staff are handling the pressure of a must win game with so much at stake.
Honestly, I was impressed. I’ve spoken so often in this column about one of the main ingredients for success being the right environment - a good atmosphere and spirit within a squad - which has to come from the manager.
You could see how relaxed Big Sam has got the squad, there was a warmth around the place, and given what Leeds are up against the atmosphere was really good, surprisingly positive. That is all his experience right there, because he knows it’s the only way to keep them up.
I know he’s on a short term contract with the sole task of trying to keep them in the Premier League, but I wouldn’t be completely surprised if they keep him on, whether they go down or not. To be honest, he’s what Leeds need right now. They’re good lads at the club, and as I say, there’s a bit of spirit there in the squad. But the reality is, they were really flat when Sam took over and he’s had to pick them up off the floor.
He clearly had done that when I saw them at the training ground. Maybe it it just too late this season, they probably should have appointed him a lot earlier. But he’s definitely turned the atmosphere around.
He’s made them harder to beat too, and far better organised. Which is why I think they could get the win over Spurs they need to put pressure on Everton. Even if that happens, it might not be enough, because Leicester are also at home, and will stay up if they win and Everton draw.
I’ve been puzzled by Leicester. They’re a team who shouldn’t be in this situation. They have enough quality and experience to have got out of trouble a long time ago, and I think they’ve made some baffling mistakes recently. At Newcastle on Monday night, for the life of me I couldn’t understand why they didn’t go for the win which would have put survival in their own hands, instead of having to rely on Bournemouth doing them a favour at Goodison.
Yeah, they had to make it tough for Newcastle first, get the game closed down and silence the crowd. But it struck me that’s all they were playing for, a point. Why not have a go later on? They had one shot all game, and that was in stoppage time. It’s no good going all out now in the final game if Everton win.
So why not gamble a bit more? Mind you, I’ve been looking at Everton’s home form of late, and that’s why I don’t think the win over Bournemouth is a formality.
It was Goodison which kept them up last season, but since the wins over Arsenal and Leeds in Sean Dyche’s first two home games in charge, they’ve only won one more - against Brentford back in early March. Since then, they’ve won only one game in 11 matches - and that was away from home. They’ve lost their last three at home, and taken one point from four matches at Goodison…and that point was a last minute equaliser!
They’ve been MUCH better away - losing just one of their last seven on their travels. It’s absolutely mad isn’t it? They’ll also be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin apparently, and he’s massive for them - not just for the goals threat, but also because he’s the only forward they’ve got who hold the ball up, and stop it coming straight back at them.
So I don’t think they can simply rely on the crowd, and believe the Goodison atmosphere will get them over the line on its own. There’s real work to do, against a team who are no pushovers, as their own relegation escape proved. Yes the fans will be massively behind them - but that can have a negative effect, because if they don’t score early, then it will get tense. It’s definitely not a gimme.
It’s funny, because all three clubs involved in this relegation scrap on the final day went for experience when the crunch came, and their Premier League survival was on the line. Now we’ll see whose experience proves the most valuable.
