For the past two years, Tadej Pogačar was the great disruptor at the men's cobbled Classics, parachuting in to play the specialists at their own game, and beat them too. This time out, with the Slovenian focused on his build-up to the Giro d’Italia, the top billing is reserved for the familiar pairing of Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert.
Perhaps not since the days of Moser and Saronni has cycling been marked by such an enduring, all-encompassing duel. In all seasons, on (almost) every terrain, Van Aert and Van der Poel appeared to be locked in a seemingly never-ending contest for supremacy. Like Messi and Ronaldo, praise for one almost inevitably carries a tacit admonishment of the other.
They can never seem to escape one another. Even when Van der Poel wins aboard a mountain bike or when Van Aert shines in the high mountains, conversation inevitably circles back again to what that performance might mean about their relative merits and their relative legacies. Even beyond the mud of the cyclocross circuit and the cobbles of the Flemish Ardennes, they serve as one another’s yardstick.
And yet, by one metric, Van der Poel has pulled ahead of his old rival over the past two seasons. Van Aert was the first of the pair to win a Monument when he claimed the pandemic-delayed Milan-San Remo in 2020, but then Van der Poel equalled the score two months later by outsprinting him at the Tour of Flanders.
Although Van Aert has enjoyed regular Classics success since then – winning E3 Harelbeke twice, Gent-Wevelgem, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and Amstel Gold Race – he has failed to add another Monument to his palmarès. Illness and ill fortune haven’t helped – witness his puncture at Paris-Roubaix last year – but Van Aert has seen the biggest prizes escape his grasp in recent years.
Van der Poel, on the other hand, has increasingly become the man for the big occasion, bringing his Monuments tally to four and winning last year’s Glasgow World Championships to boot. It seemed unlikely when he squandered winning hands at both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix in 2021, but Van der Poel has developed into the peloton’s most consistent and nerveless finisher in the biggest one-day races.
At Milan-San Remo on Saturday, meanwhile, Van der Poel showed that he can tilt the balance even in the Monuments he doesn’t win. Jasper Philipsen's victory on the Via Roma owed so much to his Alpecin-Deceunick teammate’s tagging of Pogačar on the descent of the Poggio and his work in stitching the front group together in the frantic closing kilometres.
That victory adds another layer of intrigue to the latest instalment in the eternal rivalry, underlining how the Roodhooft brothers have steadily built a fine supporting cast around Van der Poel at Alpecin-Deceuninck. The world champion will carry their hopes in the final hour at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, but he won’t be left entirely to his own devices.
Van Aert, of course, rides for the peloton’s best team in Visma-Lease A Bike, and this Spring, he will be flanked by an array of talent to match that at QuickStep during their years of plenty. The presence of Matteo Jorgenson, Tiesj Benoot, Dylan van Baarle, Christophe Laporte and Jan Tratnik means that Visma-Lease A Bike will be expected to dictate the terms of engagement on the cobbles, but they must play their hand wisely.
After all, even though they pulled off a double at Opening Weekend, they came perilously close to throwing Omloop Het Nieuwsblad away. “They showed their collective strength, but they can also destroy themselves,” Cyclingnews columnist Fabian Cancellara warned afterwards. They will have to make sure they have the right riders in the right moves if they are to outmanoeuvre Van der Poel.
In 2023, the team looked to set to sweep all before them when they won everything worth winning on the cobbles in February and March, racking up victories at Omloop, Kuurne, Harelbeke, Gent-Wevelgem and Dwars door Vlaanderen. On the two biggest Sundays of the Spring, however, they fell well short of those all-conquering standards.
Despite the credentials of Van Baarle et al, Van Aert is the obvious focal point for Visma in the weeks ahead. A year ago, the Belgian was a touch shy of his best at this point in the year. Although he dug out a fine sprint to win E3 Harelbeke, the arid truth was revealed at the Ronde. Only for a late puncture, he might have made amends in Roubaix, but Van Aert still opted for a change of build-up this year.
After a heavily reduced cyclocross programme, he started his road season early, in mid-February, but then skipped Strade Bianche, Tirreno-Adriatico and Milan-San Remo in favour of a stint at altitude. Van der Poel, for his part, cruised to another cyclocross title but then didn’t race again until Milan-San Remo.
Whatever about the roads they followed to get here, of course, their paths always meet in the Flemish Ardennes. E3 Harelbeke marks the dress rehearsal, then they do it for keeps at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. Even in a never-ending rivalry like this, every meeting feels like the definitive referendum on their merits.
Join Cyclingnews for live coverage of the 2024 Spring Classics, and check in after each race for our full report, results, gallery, news and features.
The chasing pack
Van der Poel and Van Aert don’t race in a vacuum, of course. They may be the favourites for the biggest prizes on the cobbles, but they have not yet enforced a duopoly of the kind enjoyed by Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara in their pomp. Between 2005 and 2014, all bar three out of 20 editions of the Ronde and Paris-Roubaix were won by Boonen, Cancellara or their teammates.
These days, despite the pre-eminence of Van Aert and Van der Poel, the cobbled Classics are somewhat more open, and the absence of Pogačar from the Ronde will only encourage the outsiders even more.
Lidl-Trek, in particular, will look to the coming weeks with enthusiasm. Mads Pedersen ultimately disappointed with his fourth place at Milan-San Remo, but the Dane will clearly be a factor at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. He can count on the support of Jasper Stuyven, while Toms Skuijns arrives on a high after a breakout pair of displays at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Strade Bianche.
Ineos are without Filippo Ganna on the cobbles this year, but Tom Pidcock’s late cameo at Milan-San Remo was a timely reminder of his instincts. Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost) claimed a sparkling solo win at Milano-Torino that brought back memories of his stylish victory at Stradella on the 2021 Giro d’Italia – and, of course, of his indelible 2019 Ronde triumph. Neilson Powless, so assured on the cobbles a year ago, could be a factor too, even if crashes have ruined his early season.
Another man bedevilled by bad luck of late is Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny), but his confident display at Omloop suggested he might well claim a landmark win this Spring. On paper, Gent-Wevelgem looks the race best suited to his gifts. Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Michael Matthews (Jayco-Alula) and Matteo Trentin (Tudor) should also be in the mix, while Spanish champion Oier Lazkano (Movistar) showed at Kuurne that he will be a factor again this year.
For Soudal-QuickStep, there remain severe question marks after two very lacklustre cobbled Classics campaigns. Kasper Asgreen’s 2021 Ronde triumph now feels a long time ago, and a low-key Opening Weekend hardly augured well for Julian Alaphilippe, Yves Lampaert et al. The trajectory looks altogether more positive for UAE Team Emirates, where Tim Wellens, Nils Politt and Marc Hirschi have already caught the eye this Spring.
The schedule
Classic Brugge-De Panne (Wednesday, March 20)
The old Three Days of De Panne is much missed, and this one-day event is a rather pale replacement, but it does mark the formal beginning of the ten-day countdown to the Tour of Flanders. The local laps around the exposed roads of De Moeren have the potential to split the peloton asunder, but a bunch sprint remains the most likely outcome in De Panne.
Fresh from Milan-San Remo victory, Jasper Philipsen (Alpencin-Deceuninck) is the obvious favourite to defend his title here, though he will face stiff competition from 2022 winner Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep). Mark Cavendish (Astana-Qazaqstan), Arnaud Démare (Arkéa-Samsic) and Fabio Jakobsen (DSM-Firmenich-PostNL) also feature.
E3 Saxo Classic (Friday, March 22)
In the 21st century, E3 Harelbeke has established itself as the most reliable indicator of pre-Tour of Flanders form. The race’s status first changed figuratively with Fabian Cancellara’s stunning wins in 2010 and 2011, and then it changed literally with its elevation to WorldTour level in 2012.
In the eleven editions since, four riders have achieved the E3-Ronde double, but the final result in Harelbeke isn’t the only pointer. Although Wout van Aert won the race a year ago, his discomfort on the final climbs suggested that breakaway companions Tadej Pogacar and Mathieu van der Poel were firmer favourites for the Tour of Flanders, and so it proved.
The race takes on additional significance this year for Van Aert, given that it marks his return to racing after a long stint at altitude since Opening Weekend. Van der Poel and all the Ronde contenders will be waiting.
Gent-Wevelgem (Sunday, March 24)
Amid all the jaded talk about sixth Monuments, it’s often overlooked that Gent-Wevelgem is one of the very few races on the calendar that weighs in at Monument distance. This year’s race is 253km in length and, as ever, it will provide one of the most robust tests of the entire Spring.
While the Flemish Ardennes is the centrepiece of the Ronde and its imitators, Gent-Wevelgem presents a different challenge, with North Sea winds, the dirt roads of the Plugstreets and the twin ascent of the Kemmelberg the chief obstacles here. The flat run-in to Wevelgem usually provides a tense duel between the break and the bunch, though there was little suspense last year, when the Jumbo-Visma duo of Van Aert and Christophe Laporte dominated.
Van Aert skips the race this year, but Van der Poel lines out along with the bulk of the Flanders contenders, including Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
Dwars door Vlaanderen (Wednesday, March 27)
Since switching to the Wednesday before the Tour of Flanders back in 2018, Dwars door Vlaanderen has firmly established itself as one of the races of the Spring. The 188km distance and punchy route tends to encourage attacking from distance, and the past three editions of the race have been particularly breathless.
Christophe Laporte won last year to maintain Jumbo-Visma’s pre-Ronde mastery of the cobbles, while Oier Lazkano announced himself as a Classics contender with his second place. This year, Van Aert is expected to use this race as his final rehearsal for the Tour of Flanders.
Tour of Flanders (Sunday, March 31)
The centrepiece of the Belgian Spring rarely disappoints. While there was perhaps an abundance of caution at the Ronde in the years after the new finale was introduced in 2012, the race has typically been a dynamic one over the past half decade or so. 2024 was no exception, with Pogacar claiming a win for the ages against a Van der Poel who delivered arguably his best-ever athletic display at the Ronde.
Van der Poel returns in search of a record-equalling third Tour of Flanders win, and the expectation is that he will joust with Van Aert on the final time over the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg. The Ronde, however, can throw up surprises, and plenty will line up with ambition, including past winner Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost), Tom Pidcock (Ineos), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious) and, of course, several of Van Aert’s Visma teammates.
Scheldeprijs (Wednesday, April 3)
A change of gear to break up the week between the Ronde and Roubaix. Scheldeprijs’ pan-flat route around Schoten usually lends itself to a bunch sprint, with only the wind-blasted edition of 2022 providing an exception in recent years. Alexander Kristoff soloed to victory that afternoon, but normal service was restored twelve months ago when Philipsen secured in his second win at the event.
Paris-Roubaix (Sunday, April 7)
The grand finale to the cobbled season comes across the border in France. The jagged pavé of the Nord provides a very different challenge to the cobbles and hills of Flanders, but the challengers for both races are markedly similar. Above all, it’s hard to shake off that Van Aert has unfinished business with the Hell of the North after his late puncture last year. The world champion Van der Poel stands in his way. The story of the Spring, in other words.
Join Cyclingnews for live coverage of the 2024 Spring Classics, and check in after each race for our full report, results, gallery, news and features.
