Risk of UK recession at next general election is 60%, says thinktank

Rishi Sunak faces a backdrop of an economy suffering from five years of lost growth at the next general election, the NIESR says. Photograph: Euan Duff/PA

Rishi Sunak will fight the next election against a backdrop of an economy suffering from five years of lost growth and a widening of the gap between the prosperous and less well off parts of Britain, a leading thinktank said on Wednesday.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it would take until the third quarter of 2024 for UK output to return to its pre-pandemic peak and that there was a 60% risk of the government going to the polls during a recession.