Rishi Sunak has “virtually guaranteed” himself a place on the shortlist of two to be the next Tory leader and Prime Minister, polling expert Lord Hayward said on Monday.
The Conservative peer believes Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former International Development Secretary Penny Mordaunt are battling it out for the second place.
The last two candidates, to be selected by MPs by Wednesday, in the leadership race will be put to party members in a postal vote over the summer.
As they headed to Westminster to try to bolster their campaigns, ex-Chancellor Mr Sunak has so far got the backing of 101 MPs, Ms Mordaunt 83, Ms Truss 64, former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch 49 and soldier turned MP Tom Tugendhat 32.
After the two TV debates, on Channel 4 on Friday and ITV on Sunday, Lord Hayward told The Standard: “The number of votes that Rishi has gained in the last round and his performance in the two debates have virtually guaranteed him a place in the final two.
“The battle (for the second place) is between Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt - neither of them have had a particular good weekend.
“Penny has been subjected to very strong personal criticism which appears to have had an effect.
“But Liz Truss’ weakness in debating skills has been exposed by the two debates.”
He believes Mr Tugendhat is most likely to go out of the contest in the vote on Monday night and that Ms Badenoch has a “massive if not near impossible task” to get enough votes from Attorney General Suella Braverman’s supporters, after she was eliminated from the contest, and peel off enough from Ms Truss to beat her into the final two.
A Sky debate on Tuesday evening may give Ms Truss and Ms Mordaunt, if they are both still in the race, a final chance to get a crucial boost in their campaigns, though these TV showdowns often do not produce any dramatic change in support.
He believes the clashes between the candidates in the contest has been damaging to the Tory party but it is likely to recover once it is over.
He also thinks that some of the attacks by Ms Truss’ supporters on Ms Mordaunt, on her competence and stance on trans rights, may backfire with some support at least temporarily moving to Ms Badenoch.
