THE Prime Minister is being urged by senior Tories to hold a General Election next spring, with campaign strategists believing it may be the party’s best chance to stem losses.
It comes after a series of disastrous by-elections for the Tories last week in which the LibDems and Labour overturned majorities of more than 19,000.
According to The Guardian, some party insiders have suggested May 2024 could be an “economic sweet spot” and provide the best window for “damage limitation”.
The defeats in North Yorkshire and Somerset have left Sunak under pressure, even though the Tories pulled of a narrow win in Boris Johnson’s former seat.
With talk of a planned cabinet reshuffle towards the end of the summer, attention is turning to the timing of the next General Election.
One senior Tory source told the newspaper: “Rishi will take a stronger view once we get to next January – when the economic picture is clearer and the new cabinet have had time to bed in.
“But the case for an early election is gaining traction.”
Elsewhere, Tory MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Dan Poulter said: “If we look at historical precedents, at the moment it would suggest that – unless things change and turn around – we’re probably heading for a change of government in 15, 18 months’ time.”
The idea has reportedly been advanced by Daniel Finkelstein, a Tory peer and adviser to John Major in the run-up to the party’s defeat in 1997.
One minister said: “There are sound reasons for why we’d stand a better chance by going early than in November.
“But if we are heading for opposition anyway, it would still help us avoid wipeout territory.”
Strategists have pointed to inflation falling faster than expected even though the cost of living remains high for families.
One insider told The Guardian “there’s an economic sweet spot” and suggested there would probably be a period in the spring when inflation comes under control.
Another MP pointed out that an early election may reduce the potential punishment on the Tory government for rising mortgage payments.
Those who have been shielded from the effects of interest rates due to being on relatively low fixed-rate mortgages are gradually seeing their deals expire.
The MP said: “Every person who ends up paying an extra £500 a month because they’ve come off their mortgage deal between the spring and the autumn will end up blaming us.
“The quicker we get out the way with a damage limitation early election, the quicker we can be back in power after a spell as the opposition.”
However, those who want the election to be held later point to the potential risk of the economy not having recovered enough my next May.
They also suggest that Sunak may want to make as much headway as possible in clearing the NHS backlog and dealing with industrial action.
