When Rishi Sunak took over, most Conservative MPs were in despair. Some even suggested the party did not deserve to be in power. “We need a reset,” one said at the time. “A period out of office to get our act together.”
But almost five months on, Sunak has given them hope that they can avoid a total wipeout at the next election. Despite 13 years in office and all the problems the UK is facing, they now believe they could hang on, albeit with a significantly smaller majority.
“When Rishi came in, morale was absolutely on the floor and everybody felt the next election was a foregone conclusion for Labour,” says one Tory backbencher. “But now it feels like there’s a narrow chance we can win.”
It is an ambition that Isaac Levido, the Conservatives’ election strategist, has been emphasising at every opportunity. After one briefing, a previously downcast MP said: “It’s clear that, despite Boris Johnson and Liz Truss setting a low bar, we now have a sensible, functioning government. The public gets that.”
It was evident during Sunak’s press conference with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, in Paris on Friday, which marked a warming in Anglo-French relations after the turbulence of Brexit. “Now, if we’re honest, the relationship between our two countries has had its challenges in recent years,” the prime minister began.
Yet Tory MPs still feel the odds are stacked against them and are struggling to ignore Labour’s 20-point poll lead – though most think that will tighten considerably. The strength of the “time for change” narrative with the public after the Conservatives have spent so long in office also plays on their minds.
So how has Sunak, who many felt lacked the political instincts of some of his predecessors, managed to convince them they have a chance? According to Downing Street insiders, his early adoption of a “show, don’t tell” approach has started to bear dividends.
“People don’t want fancy announcements, they just want to see politicians work hard to deliver for them and make their lives a bit better,” says one. Tory focus groups suggest the public doubts Sunak can deliver his five-point plan for the country, so a prize awaits if he does.
His first – and most pressing task – was persuading people the government could be trusted with the economy, after Liz Truss’s failed ideological experiment and the wild promises of the Johnson years. His autumn statement in November calmed the most serious jitters on his own side.
The Northern Ireland protocol deal was another key moment as it demonstrated, No 10 insiders say, his negotiating skills to strike a deal with the EU in the first place, but also his ability to get the Tory party – so often ungovernable on Brexit – to accept it.
Tory strategists believe his controversial bill to stop small boats crossing the Channel provides a useful dividing line at the next election. One backbench MP says: “Labour is finally having to say what it would do differently. It’s the first time they’ve been in an uncomfortable position for a while.”
Next week brings further opportunities for Sunak when he travels to San Diego to meet Joe Biden and the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, unveils the new integrated review of UK defence and foreign policy and – most significantly – holds his first proper budget as prime minister.
However, there are many risks ahead. Some Tories are concerned that Sunak’s five-point plan could fall into the territory of “overpromising and underdelivering”, with pledges to boost growth, stop small boats and cut NHS waiting lists particularly challenging.
In response, the government is planning a series of “checkpoints” so ministers have the opportunity to explain to the public and anxious Tory MPs why progress has been slow – or even nonexistent – in some areas.
One MP on the right of the party warns that if the small boats policy falls apart Sunak could even face a confidence vote. “He can blame it on the courts or the House of Lords but the public just won’t buy it. They’ll just think it’s an excuse.”
Sunak appears to have a plan. “There are whispers that he’s willing to put withdrawing from the European convention on human rights into the manifesto,” says one MP, who believes it could it stave off threats from the right and hold the 2019 electoral coalition together.
“Red wall” Tories are also worried about the lack of progress on Johnson’s levelling up promises. “There’s a way round that for Sunak, but he has to properly back levelling up,” one says. “The funding has to be delivered and people have to see cranes and hoarding boards, otherwise they won’t believe we’ll deliver.”
For a prime minister who arrived in No 10 promising a government of “integrity, professionalism and accountability”, the outcome of the Dominic Raab bullying inquiry is another moment of peril. It follows integrity scandals involving Gavin Williamson and Nadhim Zahawi, both of whom lost their jobs.
Johnson’s resignation honours list, said to include a knighthood for his father, Stanley, as well as his evidence to the privileges committee on Partygate at the end of March, will add to his woes, dragging down the already damaged Tory brand.
Sunak’s team hopes his own ratings, which outperform those of his party more generally, can help pull things back the closer they get to the election. With polling day about 18 months away, they do not have much time on their side, but do have some.
Sunak will struggle to make the most of that time without the support of his own MPs. He has been inviting small groups to No 10 for cups of tea. “There’s been an unbelievable amount of engagement with colleagues, more even than Theresa [May] at the height of the Brexit wars. He’s actually listening,” one says.
Sunak’s allies say he knows he needs to take his party with him on everything he does – for practical reasons but also because the public hates divided parties.
A big chunk of his own party remains sceptical. But that is now laced with hope. “Is it enough right now? No,” one says. “But does it show a direction of travel as we move towards the next election? Absolutely.”
