Nine out of 10 voters think their personal finances are getting worse or no better, underlining the challenge facing Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in the dwindling time before the next election.
The stark finding in an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for the Evening Standard reflects a long period of high interest rates, stubborn inflation and anaemic GDP growth, and comes despite attempts by the Prime Minister and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to talk up their economic record.
Mr Hunt is hinting at a General Election in October with another fiscal statement possible in September, following a 2p cut to National Insurance this month. Last week, he predicted an autumn “feel-good factor” once Bank of England rates finally start to come down, after what he admitted had been a “very bruising period”.
The bruising is evident in the Ipsos survey, which found that only 13 per cent think their personal financial situation is better than six months ago. Fully 43 per cent say it has got worse, and 43 per cent also say it is about the same.
Half of respondents think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months (52 per cent, unchanged from February), 21 per cent expect it to stay the same (+2), and 21 per cent think it will improve (-3). That translates into an Economic Optimism Index of -31, a deterioration from -28 in February.
Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said: “Public concern over key delivery issues such as the economy and public services remains central to the difficulties facing the Government.
Public concern over key delivery issues such as the economy and public services remains central to the difficulties facing the Government
“While pessimism about the economy and concern over inflation are not quite as severe as they were in 2022 they are still high up the agenda, and most people are still not feeling enough improvement in their personal finances,” he said.
The economy was the most important issue for 23 per cent of respondents, behind only the state of the NHS (35 per cent). Asylum and immigration ranked next on 20 per cent followed by inflation/cost of living (19 per cent).
Education/schools was the most important issue for 13 per cent, while taxation, housing and protecting the environment/climate change were each on 10 per cent.
Overall, as reported by the Standard last week, the Conservatives were on 19 per cent, compared to 20 per cent in February which was the worst for the party since 1978 when Ipsos started its regular poll tracker. Labour was on 44 per cent, down three points, but still a 25-point lead over the Tories.
The Chancellor’s hopes of rate reductions soon were dealt a blow with the news last week that consumer inflation stood at 3.2 per cent in March. That was down from 3.4 per cent in February and its lowest level since September 2021, but the fall was less than expected by the City where many economists pushed back their forecasts for cuts to borrowing costs.
Mr Hunt was speaking to Bloomberg TV in New York as the International Monetary Fund unveiled new forecasts predicting that the UK will post slower growth this year than previously thought, and remain the second-worst performer in the G7, as it warned about Government debt levels amid talk by the Chancellor and PM of abolishing National Insurance.
Mr Hunt said that governments across the West had had to contend with “a really difficult period with an energy shock, with high inflation, with a pandemic”, adding: “But when it comes to a general election, it’s a choice about the future.”
However, with polls consistently giving Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party a lead of 20 points or more, time is running out for a convincing turnaround in the economy that might avert electoral calamity for the Tories.
Sir Keir seized on the publication of Liz Truss’s new book, Ten Years to Save the West, last week to claim it was “the Tory Party’s obsession with wild, unfunded tax cuts that crashed the economy… and the whole country is living it”.
From Ipsos, Mr Skinner said: “The Conservatives have fallen behind Labour on public perceptions of economic competence, and Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt still need to convince voters the economy has turned the corner to improve their party’s own position.”
* Ipsos interviewed 1,072 adults in Britain between April 3 and 15. Data are weighted. Full details at ipsos.com/en-uk
