Rishi Sunak’s latest pledge to stop illegal Channel migrants before the next election could backfire on him, according to senior Conservatives.
The prime minister is expected to unveil new legislation on Tuesday designed to stop asylum seekers from using human rights laws to avoid deportation.
But senior Tories have told The Independent they fear he has “over-promised” and will be forced to break his pledge to “stop the boats” before the general election expected to take place in late 2024.
They say a political wrangle over the new laws will mean they will be held up in parliament and do not reach the statute book in time to take effect before Polling Day.
Robert Buckland, former justice secretary, told The Independent the issue would not be solved unless Mr Sunak can get a returns deal with France when he meets Emmanuel Macron in Paris for talks this Friday.
Another ex-Tory minister told The Independent: “They’ve over-promised and now they’ve realised the clock is ticking,” the MP added. “Every week people are standing up at PMQs saying ‘Where is the legislation’?”
Cabinet minister Chris Heaton-Harris confirmed on Sunday that asylum seekers who arrive in small boats will be banned from making asylum claims. “The legislation is very black and white,” he told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday.
Under the proposals, those coming to the UK through an unsanctioned route will be detained for up to 28 days before efforts are made to deport them to their home country or Rwanda, according to reports.
One former cabinet minister said Mr Sunak may not be able to bring the numbers down, adding: “A lot of people are placing hope in the fact that the Northern Ireland Protocol [deal] means the French will help,” they told The Independent.
“But he has got to try, that is the political reality. People need to see those numbers come down – and before the next election,” they added.
Mr Heaton-Harris told the BBC that “proper conversations” were being held with French and other counterparts “to try and ensure that people are held in the first safe country that they come to”.
But Mr Buckland told The Independent a full returns deal was needed. “Detention remains a real headache, we’re spending a lot on hotels,” he said. “Without a comprehensive returns agreement with France, we’re not going to solve this issue.”
The former cabinet minister added: “Many governments have overpromised on this issue. I think the prime minister will be mindful of that. [Mr Sunak] has said it won’t be solved in a moment.”
The government is believed to have been looking at using an “ouster clause”, which aims to keep some decisions out of the courts, as part of the legislation to ban small boat arrivals claiming asylum.
But Mr Buckland warned: “Ouster clauses are not easy. The path is littered with attempts to do ouster clauses which haven’t worked and haven’t prevented judicial reviews. So they will need to trade very carefully.”
Another senior Tory figure told The Independent many moderates in the party were supportive of the plan, but added: “It’s a real challenge to get it legally watertight, and there are logistical problems if you need to detain more people.”
The MP added: “But you hope it can stem so many people coming here. We need to try something.”
Mr Sunak said the new powers would help fulfil his pledge to “stop the boats once and for all”, telling the Mail On Sunday: “Make no mistake, if you come here illegally, you will not to be able to stay.”
But the government has not yet provided details of how attempts to apply a “rights brake” mean migrants will be prevented from claiming asylum without the UK breaking the UN Refugee Convention.
Internal Home Office estimates predict another rise in small boat crossings this year, following successive annual records as previous attempted “deterrents” failed.
Almost 3,000 people have crossed the Channel so far this year, more than double the 1,400 seen by the same point in 2022, which was itself a record year.
The government has not yet fully implemented last year’s Nationality and Borders Act, which has so far failed to achieve its aim of making small boat migrants “inadmissible” for asylum.
With the Rwanda scheme at a standstill following ongoing legal challenges and an EU-wide returns deal not replaced since Brexit, there are few countries to send asylum seekers to even if the UK refuses to consider their claims.
Home Office figures show that Afghans are now the largest group of small boat migrants, having overtaken Albanians in the autumn. Although 98 per cent of Afghan asylum applications are granted, ministers have not ruled out sending them to Rwanda.
Sir David Normington, former Home Office permanent secretary, said he was “very, very sceptical” about the plans. “I really don’t see how the prime minister’s objectives are going to be achieved,” he told Times Radio. “I’m a bit concerned that he’s put it so high on his priority list. Maybe he can improve the position, whether he can stop the boats, I’m very, very sceptical.”
A source close to ex-home secretary Priti Patel told the Mail on Sunday that the plan was merely “window dressing” which would get stuck in legal action. “It’s incredible that, having hyped up what they will do, they’ve not come up with anything remotely new, nor a game-changer.”
Experts, charities, opposition MPs and some Tories have also forecast that small boat crossings will continue to rise unless the government expands alternative routes.
Stephen Kinnock, the shadow immigration minister, told The Independent: “For all the prime minister’s rhetoric, small boat crossings have sky-rocketed to double what they were at this point last year. This is the inevitable consequence of pathetic headline-chasing and government by gimmick.”
The Refugee Council warned the proposed legislation could effectively “shatter” UK commitments under the UN refugee convention. The charity said figures show that of all those who crossed the Channel last year, two-thirds would be granted asylum, as it warned the plans are “unworkable” and “costly”.
Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said: “The government’s flawed legislation will not stop the boats but result in tens of thousands locked up in detention at huge cost, permanently in limbo and being treated as criminals simply for seeking refuge.
“It’s unworkable, costly and won’t stop the boats.”
The Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants said the planned new law would “do nothing to prevent perilous crossings or save lives”. And the Care4Calais charity said that small boat crossings would “continue to increase because our government’s anti-refugee rhetoric is no alternative for workable solutions”.
Mr Heaton-Harris suggested on Sunday that the government may look at opening more “safe and legal routes” for asylum seekers.
Mr Buckland added: “Rishi Sunak has said he was exploring ways to claim safe and lawful routes – that would help the government’s case. He has the potential to be more successful than previous attempts. We can’t rush to judgement on the legislation.”
Labour published a “dossier” of previous Tory government promises to crack down when last year’s Nationality and Borders Bill was passed.
Yvette Cooper, shadow home secretary, said: “Ministers have made countless claims and promises yet the facts show their last law badly failed and made things worse. Instead of learning lessons, it looks like they are still recycling the same rhetoric and failure.”
A Home Office spokesperson said: “We are taking immediate action to tackle the rise in dangerous and illegal crossings, by speeding up returns and stepping up enforcement and we will bring forward new laws to restore fairness to our system and break the business model of the people smugglers who profit from putting lives at risk.”
