Does Rishi Sunak deserve some kind of apology? Too soon for that. But don’t underestimate this prime minister, either. His party trails Labour by more than 20 points in the polls. His job approval rating is bumping along at -26. But his handling of the Northern Ireland protocol changes this week suggests a leader with more in the tank than critics have allowed. Perhaps Sunak should not be too readily dismissed as a caretaker who is seeing out time until Keir Starmer takes over.
It is, admittedly, early days for such speculation. The protocol deal has not yet been approved. The DUP is divided about how to respond, and enjoys the feeling of having Sunak’s future in its hands. A return to power-sharing at Stormont, with the DUP playing second fiddle to Sinn Féin, is a long way off. An improved UK-EU relationship that could eventually ease Britain’s trading problems is more distant still. Most voters in Britain don’t have Europe or Northern Ireland on their minds anyway.
But allow some credit where it is due to Sunak. He could hardly have been in a weaker position than he was when he took over as Tory leader in October. It was the year of three prime ministers and four chancellors. War in Ukraine overturned the political landscape. Inflation, higher interest rates, energy price hikes and strikes ensured a grim winter. The health service has been on its knees. Boris Johnson has been greedily eyeing a return.
Amid all that, Sunak didn’t cower in the bunker. Instead, unlike Liz Truss, he prioritised the things where he could begin to shift the dial and build some political capital. Sorting the protocol was in that category, a sensible bit of ground-clearing and confidence-building. A government of which he was part had created the whole problem in the first place, of course, and one should never tire of saying so. But he did an important job this week.
In some ways, the content of the protocol deal was the relatively straightforward bit. Most of what was unveiled – notably the green and red lanes and the dispute resolution system – has been on the table for years. The politics of selling it was always going to be a much tougher task. Sunak had to market a compromise not just to the DUP, but also to a Tory party in which too many had become intoxicated with their own dogmas – which is exactly why Sunak lost to Truss last summer. He also had the shameless Johnson and the Faragiste Tory press bursting to make trouble.
Sunak has had luck along the way. Nicola Sturgeon’s departure has disarmed the Scottish separatist threat for a while, though the union remains fragile in the longer term. Energy prices have begun to ease. But he has made his own luck too. It was a key insight to recognise that the DUP had overreached itself at the expense of the UK’s wider economic and political interests, and was therefore in a weaker position than many assumed.
The choreography of the protocol deal was also bold. Potential Tory rebels faced a pincer movement of private pressure at Westminster alongside assured ministerial actions on the national stage. Sunak was on top of the detail. Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, was well briefed. The king played his symbolic role. The DUP was not allowed to hijack the launch and mobilise the European Research Group. Johnson was comprehensively outmanoeuvred.
None of this means Sunak is suddenly the effective and successful leader that the Tory party has lacked for so long. He is not. For one thing, the protocol deal may stumble. The battered economy, on which Starmer focused almost all his questions to Sunak in the Commons yesterday, remains far and away the central battleground of electoral politics for the foreseeable future. It is still more likely that Sunak will oversee the end of a long period of Conservative government than its renewal.
This week, though, has provided a reminder of two important things that deserve to be noted by political observers. First, it has suggested that Sunak is capable of rebuilding at least some of the reputation for Conservative competence. Second, it confirmed that he may be starting to steer the Tory party towards a more moderate and pragmatic place.
These signs of change should be watched seriously, because the Tory party has history as an election winner. It also enjoys some electoral advantages over Labour. These include the new constituency boundaries on which the next election will be fought, the reduction in the number of seats from Wales and Scotland, and the fact that the Tories need a smaller lead than Labour in the overall national vote to be the largest party at Westminster or to have an overall majority. Sunak also gets to choose the election date.
Changes of this kind are not like electoral on-off switches. No Tory leader can simply declare the convulsions of the past seven years over, or announce that from now on, they will be competent and consensual. The damage done by the polarisation, recklessness, venality and destructiveness of the May-Johnson-Truss years casts long shadows that will shape the politics of this decade. Nevertheless, this week highlighted some early if incomplete signs that Sunak is starting to change the Tory party. It would be foolish to ignore them. Starmer certainly is not doing so.
Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist
