What’s the biggest mistake Keir Starmer has made this year? Given that the Labour leader enjoys a 19-point poll lead, you could argue there aren’t many to pick from. Figures on the left of the party cite policy decisions such as sticking with the two-child benefit cap. But Downing Street would point you back to four months ago and Labour’s attack ads. The springtime offensive saw Starmer fight dirty as his party accused Rishi Sunak of not believing adults convicted of sexually abusing children should go to prison.
They were designed as a stress test (with mixed results) for the shadow cabinet and parliamentary party on the need to hold a difficult line in an election campaign. But in No 10 they were seen as a green light for the Tories to go further. “His strategic mistake was to step in the gutter,” argues one senior government figure. With the polls showing little sign of improvement, No 10 is now planning to join Starmer there. The Tories are going into fight mode.
While Sunak often gives the impression of being squeaky clean, his team hasn’t always been. Listen to Nadine Dorries – whose soon-to-be-published book, The Plot: The Political Assassination of Boris Johnson, is expected to make unhappy reading for No 10 – and Team Sunak are as machiavellian as it gets. But rather than fight with one another, No 10 hopes to turn its ire on Starmer.
“It’s coming up to a year of Rishi, and the polls are not moving enough,” says one government aide. “It’s throw-the-dice territory.” That means trying to prise open the cracks in Labour as the party sets out dividing lines on immigration, law and order, welfare and green energy. Special advisers are to find more attack stories. Sunak will also be doing his fair share – rather than hiding behind outriders.
There was a hint of what’s to come this week when Sunak embarked on a Twitter thread accusing Labour of being on the same side as criminal gangs when it comes to illegal migration. Howls of outrage quickly followed, with the Labour peer Stewart Wood declaring that he was wrong to have thought Sunak in No 10 would “mark the end of childish, disingenuous, divisive, desperate and misleading rhetoric from our country’s prime minister”. Wood is unlikely to enjoy what comes next.
As one No 10 figure put it in a meeting with colleagues recently: “The gloves are off and we are going to run at everything to expose how the country would be worse off under Labour. Boats, crime, energy and more.”
A particular focus will be Starmer’s time as director of public prosecutions – with plans to depict the Labour leader as on the side of criminals, leading to tragic consequences for the victims. “Everyone got very angry about Boris’s Jimmy Savile jibe, but this stuff cuts through,” says a senior Tory. “In focus groups, the DPP stuff comes up.”
Of course, there are risks to such a move. The attacks could prove a turnoff, and Sunak could prove a bit too polite to be all that convincing as an attack dog. But perhaps more problematic is whether the Tories can themselves hold the line. One area where the Conservatives see a clear dividing line with Labour is green energy. Starmer’s plan to end new oil and gas licences has delighted Tory MPs in Scotland. Meanwhile, the now scaled-down plan of investing billions in green energy has allowed the party to go on the attack on Labour spending.
But the surprise Tory victory in the Uxbridge byelection – by less than 500 votes – has complicated the picture. It certainly stopped the Tories from descending into open warfare, as had been expected if it were a triple byelection defeat. But since then it has seen the two sides of the Tory party clash over whether it shows there is an electoral win in backsliding on net zero. The campaign against Ulez is viewed as being “wot won it”.
It means MPs have spent the first week of recess not attacking Labour but bickering over net zero. “How have we kept Uxbridge but made it into an internal environment row?” asked one exasperated government figure this week. While there have been a few tentative signs of a climbdown, with the delay of recycling reforms and hints from ministers that more could follow, the debate in Downing Street on how far to go is live.
Tory MPs on the right of the party – and the Conservative candidate for London mayor, Susan Hall – see the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars as unrealistic, arguing that this could be delayed in a vote-winning move, and create a clear dividing line with Labour. The problem? A large chunk of the party – particularly MPs in southern seats where the Liberal Democrats are the second largest party – see this as an electorally disastrous move that would actively lose them votes. “It’s a fault line in our party,” says one former minister. “Very crudely, it’s the ‘red wall’ MPs who are net zero sceptic and the ‘blue wallers’ who take the opposite view.”
While the one-nation types often come across as a less rebellious Tory tribe when compared with MPs on the right of the party, here they have numbers. The Conservative Environment Network is very active, with more than 100 members, and is ready to mobilise if Sunak backslides further. What’s more, there is scepticism in parts of No 10 that a war on net zero would be electorally helpful. Under Theresa May, there was a drive to focus on the environment and animal welfare – a path Boris Johnson also took – after the 2017 snap election saw the party punished over comments on foxhunting and other issues.
The row points to the decisions coming down the line. As the election draws closer, Sunak plans to take bolder stances on various issues – with an awareness that it means standing up to parts of the party. “We can’t please every faction,” says a senior government figure. Putting off the reshuffle until the autumn meant that MPs were on better behaviour after two byelection losses.
But given that there are always more losers than winners, the downside is that a reshuffle on their return from recess risks planting seeds of discontent in the first week back. It means Sunak had best hope that his new attack mode isn’t overshadowed by Tories turning on one another.
• This article was amended on 31 July 2023 to clarify that Susan Hall is not an MP, as an earlier version suggested.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political editor
