In the world of expectation management, a “leaked” memo can be a useful tool for a political party on the eve of a tricky byelection. So the publication of an internal report prepared for the Conservative party chair, Greg Hands, was initially met with some scepticism.
The document, based on telephone canvassing data from recent days, claimed the Tory vote in Thursday’s two byelections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire could halve to about 30%, creating more problems for Rishi Sunak.
In Mid Bedfordshire, where Nadine Dorries hung on for months after saying she would quit, the internal polling, seen by Sky News, suggested the Tories would lose even though it said Labour was trailing behind in the rural seat on 22% and the Lib Dems on 12%.
The memo also indicates a loss in Tamworth, where Chris Pincher stood down after drunkenly groping two men, and where there is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour.
Despite the leak, both results look far from clear cut. The Tories hold a majority of almost 25,000 in Mid Bedfordshire and it is 94 years since a party other than the Conservatives won the seat. The three-way nature of the contest means it will be a scrappy fight to the end.
Tamworth has reflected the overall general election result since the constituency’s recreation in 1997. It has been comfortably held by the Tories since 2010, most recently with a majority of nearly 20,000. A Labour victory there, if replicated across the board at a general election, would leave Sunak’s party with fewer than 60 constituencies.
“These are super-safe Tory seats that would require for us to overturn results larger than those that we overturned in Selby,” Keir Starmer’s spokesperson told reporters on Wednesday, in some expectation management of his own.
“Winning either of these seats would be a moonshot for us so it’s worth keeping a sense of perspective around just how safe these Tory seats are. Neither of them are on our target list.”
Yet the sense of optimism among some Labour MPs, officials and activists off the back of historic victories in Selby and Rutherglen, is hard to contain. One who has knocked on doors for the party in Tamworth even suggested they could win big there.
Those working on the campaign are quietly confident but suggest there are a high number of “don’t knows” among voters who backed the Tories in 2019 and would consider switching; it is hard to predict where they will do so or if they will stay at home.
They say the cost of living and crime are the two biggest issues on the doorstep and although, in the early days of the campaign, the Pincher scandal was a “drag anchor” on the Tory vote, much of the anger has faded.
In Mid Bedfordshire there has been an unpredictable fight for the finish, not least because none of the main parties had solid constituency data at the start of the campaign – the Tories because they never needed it, and Labour and the Lib Dems because they have never been in the running.
The cost of living crisis has hit hard in the seat, which has the third highest concentration of mortgage property ownership in England. Activists from all the main parties say the NHS is frequently mentioned on the doorstep too, as well as the planning system.
Tory MPs who have campaigned there said that local irritation at Dorries’ behaviour remains a problem for the party. The former cabinet minister, a close ally of Boris Johnson, did not speak in the Commons for more than a year, moved out of the constituency and stopped holding in-person surgeries.
A poll conducted by Survation said Labour and the Conservatives were tied on 29% with the Lib Dems trailing behind on 22%. “Everything we know about the campaign gives us hope and motivation to get across the finish line first,” said Peter Kyle, the Labour campaign manager. “There’s a pathway to us winning.”
The best hope for the Tories is that the progressive vote is split. Labour and the Liberal Democrats have heavily targeted the seat, unlike in other recent byelections where one party has unofficially stood back to allow the other to challenge the Conservatives.
“You’ve obviously got some headwinds with these two,” Sunak’s press secretary told reporters on Wednesday. “Difficult local circumstances led to these byelections.”
The memo also suggests the Conservatives are preparing to blame Dorries and Pincher personally in the event the party loses either seat. But Sunak, already struggling to overcome the narrative that his government is out of time, should take little comfort from being able to point the finger of blame elsewhere.
