Again, the No. 1 team and the No. 1 seed are absent from the championship winner’s circle.
Top-ranked Vanderbilt struggled to even advance to match play this week. No. 2 Illinois falls again match play. Stroke-play champions and third-ranked North Carolina continue a trend that has seen the top team in stroke play lose in bracket play 13 out of 14 years.
Instead, we have two teams that were amongst the best all season long, just not at the top.
Florida and Georgia Tech played for the title. Florida and Georgia Tech are very good college golf teams. Florida won, becoming the second team in a row ranked No. 6 to win the national championship. In this match play format, that is where you want to be.
No. 1 seeds and No. 1 teams rarely win.
In sports, we know the No. 1s and No. 2s do not always win the title.
Why does this happen in college golf?
The reason is very simple. Stroke play determines the rankings. Stroke play determines the seeds.
The Gators did finish tied for second after 72 holes of stroke play, earning the No. 2 seed. The Gators were ranked 6th by Golfweek entering match play.
However, stroke play does not determine the winner. Only how you get a chance to win. Match play is used, and that format brings teams closer together. Levels the playing field.
It decreases the value of a dominant player. Instead of being several shots better, that top player can only be one point better in match play. And in 18 holes of golf, with players of NCAA Championship caliber, literally any player can beat the other any time out.
And sure, at times it can be more exciting. Not always. But, if you played a season full of dual matches, your rankings would look much different. They would look like match play rankings.
Again, this is to take nothing away from all the teams that have won a title since 2009, when the format changed. But, rather to try to figure out if there is a way to solve this formula on how they won.
Programs spend thousands of dollars to figure out how to get better. Like all sports, analytics are big in college golf. Whether it’s studying your swing numbers or breaking down the golf course. Or maybe it’s trying to figure out where to play and who to play. Being the best or second best or third best is hardly a guarantee to get a ring.
How to figure out the NCAA match play riddle? We have 14 years’ worth of data. The average national championship winning team is ranked 7.7. The seed average is 4.1.
Not sure if there is anything more than that. It may just be up to the golf gods or a bounce here or there on Tuesday or Wednesday.
No idea if there is an actual answer.
For Florida, the answer was ranked No. 12 after the fall, No. 7 entering the regionals, finish fourth at the NCAA Regional, finish tied for second after 72 holes of stroke play and then defeat Virginia (3-2), Florida State (3-2) and Georgia Tech (3-1).
That equals NCAA champions.
And with that path, it’s the first championship for the Gators since 2001, and the Grayhawk golf championship chapter closes. For three years the folks at Arizona State, Grayhawk, Thunderbirds and many volunteers were as good a host as we have ever seen. Certainly, big shoes for future hosts.
And continued searching for that winning formula for coaches.
