Wealthy countries must completely stop oil and gas production within the next 12 years if the world is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avert the most disastrous impacts of climate change, a study published Tuesday warned.
Lead author Kevin Anderson, of Manchester University’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said the 2034 threshold applied to a host of rich countries, while poorer nations would have until the middle of the century to catch up.
The 76-page analysis found that 19 of the world’s 88 oil and gas producers needed to stamp out their activities if the world was to have a 50/50 chance of capping temperatures at 1.5C of warming.
“The report makes absolutely clear that there is no capacity in the carbon budget for opening up new production facilities of any kind, whether coal mines, oil wells or gas terminals,” an overview of the study said.
The richest countries included the United States, the world’s top producer, Norway, Britain, Canada Australia and the United Arab Emirates.
Huge challenge
Since the Paris Agreement settled on reducing global warming by “well below” 2 degrees Celsius in 2015, climate experts have increasingly warned that a 1.5 degree temperature goal was a much safer bet.
“Delivering on the climate commitments that we've made internationally and nationally – staying under 1.5C or 2C of global warming – is far more challenging than we have been prepared to accept,” Anderson told AFP.
Tyndall’s analysis, which examined the wealth of each country and its dependence on fossil fuels, found that a rapid move away from oil and gas would be more damaging to poorer countries who risked political instability.
Anderson said this conclusion was reached after calculating the GDP per capita that remained in a country once its revenue from oil and gas was removed.
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Wealthy nations would remain wealthy, even after their fossil fuel income was lost, but poorer countries with little economic revenue outside of oil and gas would suffer.
The research charted a course for middle grouped countries – such as China, Brazil and Mexico – to end output by 2043. Indonesia, Iran and Egypt needed to follow suit by 2045.
Only the poorest oil and gas producing countries – such as Iraq, Libya, Angola and South Sudan – could continue their extraction and production projects until 2050.
The Tyndall report comes as the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meets for two weeks of talks to approve a handbook of options for reducing carbon pollution.
