We were cut off from a formal Scumbag Locks ™ column last week thanks to the holidays and furlough. But rather than take the week to regroup, the Rhode Island Scumbag and I banded together and dropped our picks anyway via Twitter.
This was a mistake.
Our late-season cold snap extended through Week 17, where Vegas once again proved to know best by twisting us across what looked like easy lines like Silly Putty. Only one of our six picks hit; a damning endorsement in the face of the regular season finale.
Week 18 was always going to be tough to handicap from the outset. Teams jockeying for draft position and little else will hand the reins over to their backups. Others locked into the playoff race my opt to sit ailing players and prioritize health over seeding. A league loaded with variables will be filled with even more as the 2022 NFL campaign grinds to a halt.
Where does that leave us? Honestly, both the RIS and I are cool with the idea of any of y’all straight-up fading our picks. It would have worked out great for you the past two weeks. Or, to hear him say it:
It might be time to fade the Rhody Scumbag — Just putting that disclaimer out there. My process hasn’t changed, but my results surely have. I guess it is inevitable after such a hot start that eventually I would cool off. I’m going to put these picks out there, but follow at your own risk. I’d advise fading your way into some winners.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Jacksonville Jaguars -6 vs. the Tennessee Titan
As a Patriots fan, watching the Titans attempt to play offense is all too familiar to me this season. You’re really hoping for them to run for two first downs, possibly complete one or two passes, then punt the ball away and let the defense do their thing.
That has been a recipe for enough success that they are playing for the division title on Saturday, but it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence from a betting perspective. I think Jacksonville has all the momentum and they should do enough to win and cover this number.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Miami Dolphins +1 vs. the New York Jets
Have people seen the Jets play? They are terrible. Enough said, fade the mean green. Back the fins.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. the Houston Texans
I think the Texans have their golf clubs in their trunks. They are ready to shake hands, shower up and hit the links. Jeff Saturday will want to solidify his candidacy for this HC job moving forward [Ed. note: lolololol]. What better way to send a message than beat down a divisional foe?
Good Luck. Bet responsibly in Week 18. Save some of that bankroll for the Wild Card round because those are usually some of the best games of the season.
Scumbag locks the last two weeks: 1-5 (.167)
Scumbag locks year to date: 27-26-3 (.509)
My non-scumbag locks: Jacksonville Jaguars -6 vs. the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. the New Orleans Saints, and Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. the Cleveland Browns
Well, the wheels have fallen off on my game picks. My prop bets too, if you happened to tune in last week (I got them in an hour before kickoff, so hopefully you didn’t). The end of this season has been a reckoning and I’m now officially under .500 (the prop bets are still impressively profitable despite last week’s 2-6 showing).
Let’s try to end strong and maybe, possible, kinda-sorta catch up to the RIS to close out the regular season.
The Jaguars haven’t given up a touchdown in the last two weeks. Granted, that’s been against the Jets and Texans — but now they get a fading Titans team who’ll have Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Jacksonville is peaking and Tennessee hasn’t won a game since before Thanksgiving. Laying a touchdown with the Jags feels weird, but also somehow feels right.
The Saints are hotter than the Panthers right now but have less to play for. Sure, neither team has a playoff prayer, but Carolina could bolster interim head coach Steve Wilks’ case to take over the full-time role by winning Sunday and wrapping his record at 6-6 (his predecessor, Matt Rhule, never won more than five games in a season). Panthers players reportedly respect the hell out of Wilks, who got a bit of a raw deal in his one year as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals (only to be replaced by Kliff Kingsbury. My god, the disrespect). Expect them to come out firing — especially against a Saints defense that’s not nearly as strong against the run as it is against the pass.
I also kinda like the Indianapolis Colts at -2.5 for a similar reason. Jeff Saturday isn’t coming back (and if he is, lololol), so he’ll get a loud reception at home from whatever Indy diehards manage to show up for a battle between bottom-four teams. Couple that with Houston’s unofficial desire to clinch the top pick in this spring’s draft and you’ve got the recipe for a Colts win. In a very bad, very stupid game, but still. A win.
Buuuut, whenever the Scumbag and I come to agreement on our locks we fall flat on our face (0-5 so far this year, which is staggering), so let’s go with the Steelers instead. Mike Tomlin isn’t getting the Coach of the Year credit he deserves for rallying this team from 2-6 to the periphery of the playoff race. He’s once again winning games with an underwhelming quarterback. And while I hate betting on all things Browns this year, I’m gonna roll against them one last time for the 2022 regular season in what should be a playoff-esque atmosphere in not-Heinz Field.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 2-4 (.333)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 21-23-1 (.478)
