Last week, I wondered aloud whether it was time to trust the Seattle Seahawks, who were a meager 3.5-point favorite against the Carolina Panthers at home. The football gods answered in resounding fashion, crafting a game in which Sam Darnold barely registered through the air and it did not matter. Carolina ran for 223 yards and the final 30-24 score failed to reflect how badly Seattle botched things.
This was endemic of a horrible betting week for myself and our resident handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag. We threw out five NFL picks between us. One hit; the New England Patriots at -1 thanks in large part to Kyler Murray’s ACL deciding enough was enough early in the first quarter. This string of ineffective Sundays has us both reeling. While we’re both on the sunny side of .500, neither one of us has hit that coveted 55 percent win percentage that makes this whole exercise profitable.
Which means it’s time for a change. The Scumbag System ™ has run out of gas; its brief life as a betting phenomenon has changed the way sportsbooks set lines forever and now we must adjust. This is absolutely what happened and we will not be taking questions on the matter, thank you.
What a terrible week for the Rhode Island Scumbag [Ed. note: Things are either really good or really bad if he’s referring to himself in the third person. This is the latter]. That week was so awful, that I’m actually taking the rest of the season off.
I’m going to regroup, watch the games from a different lens and then be ready to hammer the playoffs with a full bankroll intact. I am NOT going to chase two bad weeks of losses by having a third losing week. Sometimes when you’re a degenerate, you get too close to the action and can’t really see the game of football for what it is. You only focus on the spread, total and props that you are sweating.
That’s … surprisingly reasonable! But just because he’s not betting doesn’t mean we don’t have recommendations for you. You know, if you still trust us after a grim couple of weeks.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears first half total UNDER 24.5 points
This week I’m going back to some systems. First half unders have been relatively solid this year. I don’t understand why the Eagles-Bears game is expected to produce more than 24.5 points in two quarters of football.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Miami Dolphins +7.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Divisional underdogs have been solid in the NFL since their creation. Especially when a team meets the same opponent for a second time in the season. I thought Miami should be a five-point dog to Buffalo. We are getting a gift of 7.5 and can’t pass on this opportunity.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Minnesota Vikings -4 over the Indianapolis Colts
Lastly, I’m going to play the no respect card with the Vikings. They’ve been solid all season. Winning games and taking names.
Yet here we are in week 15 and they are only laying four points to a franchise that finds runner-up finishes banner-worthy [Ed. note: Why yes, my friend *is* a Patriots fan whose adulthood coincided with the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry, why do you ask?].
Minnesota should bounce back after a really poor showing in Detroit. My prediction is a double digit win for the Vikes, but we will settle for anything over five points. Take Minnesota -4 vs the 2014 AFC Finalists.
Scumbag locks last week: 0-3 (.000)
Scumbag locks year to date: 24-20-3 (.543)
My non-scumbag locks: New York Jets (pick 'em) over the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings -4 over the Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Bengals-Buccaneers UNDER 44.5 points
I don’t love that Mike White had his chest cavity flattened like an old roadrunner/coyote bit and I understand the Lions are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. But here are the squads Jared Goff has beaten in Detroit’s 5-1 run:
- Packers (ranked 23rd in defensive DVOA)
- Bears (32nd)
- Giants (29th)
- Jaguars (28th)
- and Vikings (22nd)
The Jets’ defense ranks sixth and is capable of grounding the Lions. Detroit can’t say the same — while that unit has improved over the course of the season, it still clocks in at 24th-best. New York has found ways to beat teams with Zach Wilson at quarterback. I have confidence Mike White, with at least some of his ribcage still intact, can handle the same at home.
I’m with our Scumbag friend when it comes to Colts-Vikings. Minnesota needs a bounceback win at home. And it gets to face the Jeff Saturday Colts, who lost their most recent road game to another NFC contender, the Cowboys, by 35 points.
I also don’t like laying points on the road, but my faith in the Buccaneers against a playoff team is extremely limited. Tampa Bay’s best home win came over a fading Seahawks team [Ed. note: Oops. That game was in Munich. The actual best home win? Against the Saints in a game the Bucs trailed 16-3 with four minutes to play] and the Bengals are flying right now — 5-0 in their last five games, three of which have come by at least 13 points.
That said, I like the Bucs-Bengals UNDER 44.5 points a little more. Tampa’s failed to hit that number in eight of its last nine games. Cincinnati’s been more reliable in that regard, but also limited by not-great defenses like Tennessee and Cleveland in recent weeks.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 1-2 (.333)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 17-16-1 (.515)
