Bad news, everyone. Our Scumbag Lock of the Year ™ didn’t work out. The New Orleans Saints, as they somehow consistently do in Tampa, befuddled Tom Brady just long enough to make Buccaneers -3.5 a pipe dream.
That was brutal, but this is not the time for self pity. It’s when we get back on the horse and ride it into battle.
There are only nine betting weeks left in the 2022 NFL season. 10 if you’re a true degenerate dropping wagers on the Pro Bowl’s skills competitions. That leaves us a solid runway to build a war chest before the 2023 Men’s NCAA Tournament brings three weeks of betting holidays to our doorstep.
Here’s how our resident dirtbag handicapper sees it.
I apologize to anyone who followed along with the lock of the year. I feel the pain. I’m all in on this venture, so I had a very large wager on the Bucs. It hurt. I know some people who give out picks and then don’t even bet them … that is NOT me.
I put these picks out and I bet them. Hard. I was very lucky to get some of my losses back betting on the World Cup, I’ll throw in my bonus soccer picks below. On to week 14.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 vs. the Baltimore Ravens
This is a pick based purely on watching the two teams play. I’m sure Christian will have some stats and trends to support his picks, but this right here is about me liking what I see in the Steelers.
The intangibles are there with this team, they play hard, they seem to be rallying around rookie QB Kenny Pickett and they are certainly getting the most out of their talent (classic Mike Tomlin). Baltimore is the antithesis of Pittsburgh. They don’t travel well, their body language is terrible and they just don’t seem to be a complete football team. I think Pitt should handle them easily.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. the Carolina Panthers
I made this line -6.5. I see a good amount of value getting it down to 3.5. Don’t overthink this one too much. Just lay the points and watch Seattle roll.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
I know that this looks like a spot where we are laying points on the road. It isn’t. The Chargers don’t have a home field advantage because they don’t have any fans. I consider this more of a neutral field game.
If you’re putting these two teams against each other on a neutral field, it has to be Miami. I know the Dolphins’ secondary isn’t great, but Los Angeles is not a team that scares me. I’m rolling with Miami in a big bounce back spot after a disappointing performance on the road last week.
Scumbag locks last week: 1-2 (.333)
Scumbag locks year to date: 24-17-3 (.580)
Bonus locks! Betting the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals: Backing favorites at a 3-1 Netherlands win
Take Brazil, Portugal and the Netherlands to advance. Don’t mess around with whether it’s in regulation or how they do it. Just bet them to advance.
Those 3 teams all winning will pay out at +261.
If you want a chance at a big payout, I’m playing exact score 3-1 Netherlands vs. Argentina. A $50 bet pays out $1,800.
My non-scumbag lock: Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. the Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots -1 vs. the Arizona Cardinals
I gained a little ground last week thanks to the Eagles and Titans going under 45.5 points via the garbage-time insertions of Malik Willis and Gardner Minshew in a blowout. I’m still behind, however, and as previously mentioned the clock is ticking.
Tennessee badly needs a win to keep from spiraling out and is at home, where the Titans have won eight straight against the Jaguars — and three of the last four have been by at least 20 points. Jacksonville has a deficient pass defense and Ryan Tannehill needs a get-right game.
I’m with our scumbag friend on the Seahawks, even though it’s rarely worked out when we’re on the same side of a bet and the last time I took Seattle as a home favorite it lost to the Raiders. There’s certainly a chance that happens again — this defense is a work in progress — but the Panthers, despite their newfound competence, remain the Panthers. Carolina has been feisty since Matt Rhule’s firing but asking Sam Darnold to have two solid games in a row feels like a lot.
The Cardinals only wins have come against untrustable teams, and while the Patriots qualify their passing defense should be enough to ground Kyler Murray. Arizona is 6-10 after December 1 with Kliff Kingsbury as head coach. While I’m loathe to lay points on the road I certainly do enjoy betting against Christmastime Kliff.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 16-14-1 (.532)
