Week 12 was another profitable one for this column. Well, for one of us.
The Rhode Island Scumbag pushed his win rate back up toward 60 percent, continuing a profitable streak that flies in the face of where he was this time last year. Meanwhile, my faith in the Tennessee Titans was shattered, in part, because a defensive lineman pushed a long snapper. Granted, that merely ended the game before Ryan Tannehill’s two-minute drill could stall out at his own 45-yard line, but I still would have appreciated the effort.
Week 13 brings a new opportunity and, interestingly, a long list of home underdogs in what look like toss-up games. There’s a lot to like in this Sunday’s lines if you’re feeling straight-up wins from teams like the New York Giants, Detroit Lions or Cincinnati Bengals in front of their loyal fans.
Is that where we’re gonna lean? Let’s check in with our resident expert.
What a Week 12. I absolutely smashed turkey day with the exception of my one losing play of the week — I didn’t count on the Patriots offense deciding to show up. I also discovered that betting on boring soccer matches can be extremely profitable. I have bet the HT draw of almost every game this World Cup and have cashed a ton of tickets for plus prices.
I am going to make three plays this week. I would like to be 2-0 going into Monday Night Football so that I can fire a very irresponsible wager — 10-plus units — on my Play of the Year.
Here’s what we’ve got for Week 13.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44 points
I made this line 39 on Monday and was surprised to see a battle of two running teams with surprisingly solid defenses open at 42. I believe it is now sitting at 42.5 [Ed. note: Up to 44 on Wednesday. While we’re here, the Atlanta defense (30th in overall DVOA, 28th in yards allowed) is roughly as “solid” as a post-Taco Bell bowel movement] so make sure you get the best number.
Pittsburgh has made a concerted effort to not let its quarterback turn the ball over. They’ve done this by running the ball and giving him easy throwing lanes in play action. This one will remind me of a World Cup game.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Indianapolis Colts +11.5 vs. the Dallas Cowboys
This is an overreaction by the sports betting market. Indianapolis has the potential to be a good football team. Dak Prescott is one of the most overrated players in the NFL [Ed. note: Long rant about Mike McCarthy housing hot dogs on the sideline while Kellen Moore begs him to call plays that originally went here has been deleted]. Dallas should not be laying double digits to anyone. Take the points.
The Scumbag Lock of the YEAR, part ???: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. the New Orleans Saints
I like this bet for the same reason I liked hammering USC this past weekend. The public LOVES Notre Dame and they also love the Saints for some reason.
New Orleans just played in a very physical game vs. San Francisco. They struggled to produce offense, but the score was close enough that they were battling for 60 full minutes. They now have to fly back home and play a divisional game vs. angry Tom Brady. This is the situation of all situational spots. Brady off of a loss, team off of a game vs. the 49ers and public steam on the underdog.
Lay the points.
Scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667)
Scumbag locks year to date: 23-15-3 (.598)
My non-scumbag lock: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants +2.5 vs. the Washington Commanders and Tennessee Titans-Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45.5 points
I added the Jets at -6.5 late last week, and it was a good thing I did. Failures from the Ravens’ and Seahawks’ defenses crushed me, leaving New York as the only bet I cashed in Week 12. I’m now flirting dangerously closely to .500, and while that’s still a winning record it’s not a profitable one.
My scumbag friend and I are on the same page when it comes to the Bucs. Todd Bowles made some genuinely awful calls in Week 12 against the Browns, but now he gets to match up with a similarly unimpressive coach in Dennis Allen. Tampa’s strength is its defense and now it gets a team that’s been held to 260 total yards or fewer in three of its last four games. That UNDER 40.5 points wager looks pretty good here as well if you’re looking for a quick parlay.
I’m on the Giants because ultimately they’re the safer team, even as home underdogs. Washington thrives when it drags team into the mud with it, but that’s a very Brian Daboll place to be. New York’s luck is wearing off and this team needs a W to avoid a three-game losing streak while the Commanders are riding six victories in their last seven games. It’s not scientific, but I’m backing the “need one” mentality coursing through the Giants’ locker room over a Ron Rivera team that keeps finding ways to win.
The Titans are another rock fight team — so much so that they haven’t gone over 45 total points since Week 3. That includes showdowns with the Chiefs, Bengals and the shambling corpse of the Green Bay Packers. Expect lots of runs on both sides and in a game that’s likely to be the first to halftime among the 1 p.m. slate.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 1-3 (.250)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 14-13-1 (.518)
