Last week’s results weren’t awful, but they were the worst thing you can be as a handicapper: boring. Our Scumbag prognosticator and I teamed up for a 3-4 record, meaning we were neither profitable nor fadeable. There wasn’t much you could have taken from last week’s column to make a confident decision in either direction.
Fortunately, we’ve got plenty more opportunities to get back on track, even after Week 11’s hiccup. Week 12 brings us the NFL’s annual Thanksgiving games as well as the chance to bet against Kirk Cousins in primetime (though I wish the Dallas Cowboys could have saved that boat-racing another week so we could get an artificially high Minnesota Vikings line). Where are we headed with this week’s picks? Oh, friends, I would love to introduce it here but that would only spoil the surprise.
First off, let's introduce The Degenerate's Creed
OK, that is it. Since I don’t have the discipline to stick to anything that I write about, I’m making an oath right now. The Degenerate’s Creed.
I had too much free time this weekend and idle hands were indeed the devil’s work. I listened to five different betting podcasts and read every gambling article I could find. My mind was so twisted that I ended up going oppo on two of my picks (still ended 1-1 so it wouldn’t have mattered) and I was chasing my losses on Sunday Night Football to break even (by some miracle, I ended up half a unit).
I need more of a foundation, so here it is. My picks for the rest of the season will follow this simple creed.
The degenerate’s creed:
- Do NOT lay points on the road in the NFL.
- If I elect to play a total in the NFL in a Divisional game, it will be the UNDER.
- In Bill we trust; when in doubt, bet the New England Patriots. Especially off of a bye week.
- In Divisional games, just take the DAMN POINTS!
- Do NOT chase your losses! Don’t throw good money after bad.
Here we go then. On to Turkey Day. What a smash spot for us. This is the easiest slate to handicap in a long time!
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Detroit Lions +9.5 vs. the Buffalo Bills
Detroit is on a three-game winning streak and finally gets to return to Ford Field. This is the first time in recent memory that the Lions are actually playing for something on Thanksgiving. They will fight for this one.
I made the number +7, so there is line value in getting 9.5 points. I’ll buy it up to +10.5 myself and sip my third beer of the day while I watch the Lions slide in the backdoor. [Ed. note: phrasing.].
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 42.5
If you’re a Pats fan, you can see what Mac Jones has been coached up to do. It is really more about what he has been coached up NOT to do.
“Hey Mac, go hand the ball off and if you feel any pressure, stop, drop and roll. If the receiver isn’t wide open, stop, drop and roll. Really, just either hand the ball off or go directly to the fetal position.”
The guy is basically a traffic cone at this point. Bad news is, boring [expletive] football. The good news is … it is working. Since Mac stopped throwing the ball to the wrong team, the Patriots have started winning games. Bottom line, their offensive objective is more about possessing the ball than it is scoring. Minnesota’s quarterback is also Kirk Cousins. That is enough for me to take the under.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs. the Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is really bad at football. Let’s not overthink this one.
Scumbag locks last week: 1-2 (.333)
Scumbag locks year to date: 21-14-3 (.592)
My non-scumbag lock: Tennessee Titans +2 vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders, Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 45.5 points and New York Jets -6 over the Chicago Bears
The Titans continue to be disrespected despite the fact they just keep winning. While I fully expect Joe Burrow to throw for 300-plus yards, this feels like the kind of game Tennessee grinds out, especially against a Cincinnati defense that’s stronger against the pass (ninth in DVOA) than the run (12th). Mike Vrabel’s team is 7-1 in its last eight games with the only loss coming on the road, in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs in a game where overwhelmed rookie Malik Willis started at quarterback.
The Seahawks have stumbled lately, but the Raiders are a disaster who would be 1-9 if not for the presence of Russell Wilson’s Denver Broncos. Seattle’s at home, where it’s 3-1 as well.
Ravens-Jaguars projects to be a grind. The Baltimore defense is rising and while Jacksonville can’t match that the Jags are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, which lines up well with the Ravens’ strengths. Given last week’s game in Carolina, the under feels right.
I’m also leaning toward the New York Jets at -5.5 vs. the Chicago Bears. That game looks like a big dumb mess, so it’s not an official recommendation, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
The Bears have the talent to make Zach Wilson look bad, but that’s not saying much. Chicago appears just about ready to shut things down in the wake of Justin Fields’ shoulder injury, so this likely turns into Wilson and a dominant defense laying 5.5 points at home to Trevor Siemian and a team that’s 1-7 in its last eight games. I’m not happy about betting on the Jets after last week either, but if anything can motivate Zach Wilson it’s his teammates quietly plotting to tie him to a bunk bed and pummel him with soap should he fail to own his own awfulness again.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 2-2 (.500)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 13-10-1 (.563)
