Behold, our last chance to bet football. At least until the XFL begins play February 18.
But if you’re not interested in sweating out an AJ McCarron-Eric Dungey showdown this spring, Super Bowl 57 is one final opportunity to make a dent in your gridiron bankroll. 21 weeks of games, statistics and data have led us to the biggest game of the year — and one that’s expected to bring in more than $16 billion in betting revenue across America.
It’s also a chance for our resident handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag, to reverse a troubling trend that’s followed him through two straight postseasons. Our guy is 2-9 across two years of playoff locks, an eminently fadeable number that has wiped out the goodwill of a once-solid regular season success rate.
That’s allowed me and my 5-1 postseason record to overtake him in the standings. Will those trends hold? Here are our best bets for you to consider or fade as the big game approaches.
The Scumbag Super Bowl Lock, part I: Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
Playing the Super Bowl as a sports bettor is an exercise in restraint. There are hundreds of props, intense media coverage, and two weeks of not betting football [Ed. note: how dare you impugn the good name of the Pro Bowl Games]. All of these factors have led me to make some really terrible bets over the past two decades.
Let’s not do that. Here is the Rhode Island Scumbag Guide to betting the Super Bowl.
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Stick to your unit bets. Bet one unit on a side or total and a combined one unit on props if that is what you’re into.
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Don’t be fooled by longshot props- Props with odds of 25:1-plus are priced that way for a reason — they probably won’t hit. Don’t be afraid to take small wins.
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Bet the Eagles
The Scumbag Super Bowl Lock, part II: Jalen Hurts first half passing yards UNDER 120.5 and Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19.5 rushing yards
The Eagles will look to establish the run and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. That makes Kenny Gainwell a viable bet. Wager one unit on the Eagles -1.5 and half unit on each prop.
Scumbag locks last week: 1-1 (.500)
Scumbag locks in the regular season: 28-28-3 (.500)
Scumbag locks in the playoffs: 2-5 (.286)
Scumbag locks year to date: 30-33-3 (.477)
My non-scumbag Super Bowl lock: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles, Chiefs-Eagles total UNDER 51 points and Isiah Pacheco OVER 48.5 rushing yards
I agree on not taking a longshot bet. Buuuut, if you’re gonna flush some cash away, why not roll with “any non-quarterback passing touchdown” at +2200? These are two innovative offenses and we know Philadelphians will absolutely lose their minds if another Philly Special-esque play finds the end zone in the Super Bowl.
But in terms of modest bets, I’m backing a more experienced Chiefs team over a deeper Eagles squad. Jalen Hurts’ limited playoff returns as a passer is enough of a concern to jump on the points, even if Philadelphia has yet to play a close playoff game. You can read all my keys to a Kansas City victory here.
One of those keys is establishing the run. The Eagles’ pass defense ranks first in DVOA but its run defense is 21st. That unit improved as the season wore on, but it still lags behind the pass rush and secondary in Philly. That leads me back to Pacheco, who runs like he’s trying to stab the ground to death with his feet. 49 rushing yards is a very attainable total, even if he only gets eight to 12 touches — and it feels like he might get more, especially if the Chiefs open up an early lead.
Non-scumbag locks last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Non-scumbag locks in the regular season: 23-24-1 (.490)
Non-scumbag locks in the playoffs: 5-1 (.833)
Non-scumbag locks year to date: 28-25-1 (.528)
