A government-ordered review has dismissed claims that suicide rates in young people with gender dysphoria have risen sharply since the NHS restricted access to puberty-blocking drugs.
A report by the government’s adviser on suicide prevention also found that the claims – made by the campaign group the Good Law Project – were not supported by data and could prompt children under the age of 18 to take their own life.
The health secretary, Wes Streeting, last week asked Prof Louis Appleby, a leading authority on mental health at Manchester University, to look at suicide rates among current and former patients of the now-discontinued gender identity development service (Gids) at the Tavistock and Portman NHS trust.
And in his paper, published on Friday, Appleby said he had found no evidence to back up the claims.
“The data do not support the claim that there has been a large rise in suicide by young patients attending the gender services at the Tavistock since the High Court ruling in 2020 or after any other recent date,” his analysis concluded. It covered the care received by and outcomes seen among patients of the London-based specialist mental heath trust.
The Good Law Project’s executive director, Jo Maugham, said in response: “I was not contacted in advance of the statement being released and will obviously need time to respond. I do have difficulties with the figures and analysis and will respond in due course.”
Appleby also advised patients, NHS staff and campaign groups to not see the provision of puberty blockers “as the touchstone issue, the difference between acceptance and non-acceptance [of gender dysphoria]. We need to move away from this perception.”
He was asked to examine the evidential base for claims that the NHS’s decision to limit access to puberty-blocking drugs after the high court’s ruling in the Keira Bell case in December 2020 had led to a “surge” or “explosion” in suicides among young people with gender dysphoria. Three judges ruled that those under 16 lacked the capacity to decide whether or not to give informed consent to take the drugs.
As well as finding no evidence to support the suicide claims, Appleby also highlighted “the way that this issue has been discussed on social media has been insensitive, distressing and dangerous, and goes against [Samaritans] guidance on safe reporting of suicide”.
“The claims that have been placed in the public domain do not meet basic standards for statistical evidence,” he added.
He flagged up the possibility of “already-distressed adolescents hearing the message that ‘people like you, facing similar problems, are killing themselves’, leading to imitative suicide or self-harm”.
Appleby, an expert in mental health statistics, found evidence of 12 suicides among current and former Gids patients in the six years between 2018-19 and 2023-24. Six of them were among under-18s.
Five suicides occurred in the three years before 2020-21 and seven in the three afterwards. “This is essentially no difference, taking account of expected fluctuations in small numbers”, he said.
Kate Barker, chief executive of the LGB Alliance, said: “It’s distressing that the completely unevidenced claims of increased suicidality were allowed to take root, and given credence by people in public life who should have known better than to play politics with such an emotive issue.
“Now the whole world can see these claims for what they are: a cynical attempt to spread misinformation to serve a dangerous and homophobic ideology.”
• In the UK and Ireland, Samaritans can be contacted on freephone 116 123, or email jo@samaritans.org or jo@samaritans.ie. In the US, you can call or text the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline on 988, chat on 988lifeline.org, or text HOME to 741741 to connect with a crisis counselor. In Australia, the crisis support service Lifeline is 13 11 14. Other international helplines can be found at befrienders.org.
