Australia predicted to avoid worst of downturn as IMF warns of global recession

Shoppers at Bourke Street mall in Melbourne. A low jobless rate and surging commodity prices have helped improve the federal budget’s bottom line. Photograph: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images

The federal budget will benefit from an upswing in revenue due to “cyclical serendipity” but “storm clouds” are gathering, as the International Monetary Fund warns a third of the global economy could contract this year or next.

Deloitte Access Economics predicts the budget’s cash deficit will widen to $60.7bn for 2022-23 from $32bn last year. However, $114.4bn in more revenue for the next four years than was predicted in the final Coalition budget last March will see that deficit narrow each year to $35.7bn by 2025-26.