Even for Victoria’s usually dysfunctional Liberal party division, the untimely death of member John Ternel was a schemozzle.
A member for more than a decade, Ternel twice sought preselection to run for the Libs in suburban Melbourne seats. Unsuccessful both times, he quit after this month’s Farrer byelection.
After he resigned his membership, Liberal officials sent the party rank and file a mass email announcing Ternel’s death. The ABC first reported the announcement – complete with the subject line “Deceased Member” last week.
Ternel isn’t dead but, like a growing roster of Liberal members, he has signed up with One Nation and publicly criticised his old party for losing direction and focus.
At the weekend, former Liberal senator Hollie Hughes defected to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation as well, along with former party vice-president Teena McQueen, a friend of mining billionaire and Hanson supporter Gina Rinehart.
The exodus – which remaining Liberal figures expect to continue as the party flounders in the polls – mirrors the existential crisis facing the UK Conservatives right now.
At least eight senior members including former home secretary Suella Braverman and onetime leadership candidate Robert Jenrick have moved to join Nigel Farage’s party, which is enjoying a surge in public support. Local members are quitting too and Reform swept local government elections in the UK this month.
Sign up for the Breaking News Australia emailHigh-profile movements reflect what’s going on under the surface in the Liberal party. Already with an ageing membership, dissatisfaction and resentments are testing long-held loyalties and putting at risk local branch structures, volunteer firepower and the party’s fundraising capacity.
McQueen caught headlines for dining with Rinehart at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club or celebrating the defeat of moderate Liberal MPs at the hard-right CPAC Australia conference in 2022. Unable to win back a spot on the Liberal executive, she has instead declared: “I’m 100% behind Pauline.”
Hughes was another senior woman gone. A former assistant minister, until she quit after being dumped in a preselection dispute, she blames the now opposition leader, Angus Taylor. Both she and McQueen will use their profiles to attack Taylor and add to the growing hype around Hanson.
One Nation’s latest rise looks set to fuel the malaise sapping the Liberal party before the next election. Taylor’s party was never a real chance in the Farrer byelection and Monday’s Newspoll in The Australian had One Nation on a primary vote of 27%, ahead of the Coalition on 20%. Nine’s Resolve monitor had One Nation on 24% but still ahead of the Coalition.
Like the UK Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, Taylor’s position is not guaranteed up to the election.
Good news for Hanson will mostly remain bad news for Taylor, with one possible silver lining. If more rightwing diehards like McQueen exit to join Hanson, the remaining Liberal loyalists might be able to reorient their movement back to the centre.
Serious strategists such as Labor’s election mastermind Paul Erickson and Liberal operative turned pollster Tony Barry say a return to the centre is the only way the opposition can win again. To do that, the Liberals need the exodus of public support to turn back their way.
For his part, Taylor struck on a smart message when asked about the defections at the weekend. Amid frustration with Labor’s budget measures on negative gearing, trusts and capital gains tax, he told Sky anyone angry at Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers should join the Liberals, not One Nation.
If he fails, Liberal officials might need to write their own political death notice sooner than we think.
Tom McIlroy is Guardian Australia’s political editor
