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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Retail sales tumble across Britain amid cost of living squeeze and wet weather; energy price cap falls 7% – as it happened

United States Britain Ofgem United Kingdom Office for National Statistics
A shopper on Warrington High Street
A shopper on Warrington High Street Photograph: EnVogue_Photo/Alamy

Closing post

Time to wrap up….

A month of unrelenting rain in many parts of the country resulted in British shoppers spending much less than expected in April, with fewer treating themselves to clothes and big-ticket items.

The Office for National Statistics blamed the wet weather for the 2.3% decrease in the amount of goods bought, compared with March, which was much steeper than the 0.4% decline forecast by analysts.

Furniture, clothing, sports equipment, and games and toy shops experienced the biggest monthly sales drops, with non-food store sales falling 4.1%, the joint largest drop since January 2021. Retailers blamed low footfall amid bad weather, the high cost of living despite a decline in the annual pace of inflation to 2.3%, and high fuel prices.

Petrol sales dropped at their fastest rate since October 2021, while food stores sales volumes fell for the third month in a row.

The energy price cap in Great Britain will fall 7% to the equivalent of £1,568 a year this summer after a drop in wholesale gas prices.

Set by the energy regulator Ofgem, the cap reflects the average annual dual-fuel bill for 29m households and takes effect from July until the end of September.

Set quarterly, the cap will fall by £122 in July from its current level of £1,690, about £500 less than the cap a year earlier, easing the pressure on household finances. However, the cap is more than £400 more than it was three years ago, before the energy crisis.

The energy security secretary, Claire Coutinho, seized on the fall in the price cap as evidence that the pressure on household spending was easing in the run-up to the general election.

She also claimed that Labour’s plans for a state-owned Great British Energy company, focusing on renewables, would “hike your bills and raise your taxes”.

Elsewhere….here’s the economic data to watch out for over the coming weeks:

UK drivers have been warned to expect one of the busiest bank holiday weekends on the roads in years, with more than 20m leisure journeys forecast over the next four days.

Elon Musk has criticised US government tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, describing the levies as “not good” and a distortion of the car market.

The Co-operative Bank brand is on track to disappear from UK high streets, after Coventry Building Society confirmed it would acquire the bank from its hedge-fund owners in a £780m deal.

Reuters: Woman jailed for laundering bitcoin in UK from £5bn China fraud

A woman accused of converting bitcoin into cash and property to help hide the proceeds of a £5bn fraud was jailed for nearly seven years on Friday for money laundering after a trial in a London court, Reuters reports.

Prosecutors said Wen Jian helped hide the source of money allegedly stolen from nearly 130,000 Chinese investors in fraudulent wealth schemes between 2014 and 2017.

She was not alleged to have been involved in the underlying fraud, which prosecutors said was masterminded by another woman who Wen believed was independently wealthy.

As part of their investigation, British police seized wallets holding more than 61,000 bitcoin – making it one of the largest cryptocurrency seizures by law enforcement worldwide.

The 61,000 bitcoin was worth around £1.4bn when police gained access in 2021, prosecutors said during Wen’s trial. It is now worth over £3bn.

Wen, 42, denied three counts of money laundering and said she did not have any knowledge of criminality linked to the bitcoin.

She was found guilty by jurors of one count in March following a trial at Southwark Crown Court. The jury was unable to reach a verdict on two other counts.

Wen was sentenced on Friday to six years and eight months in prison for the single count of money laundering of which she was found guilty.

US consumer confidence slips

Consumer confidence in the US has dropped, as Americans fret about rising unemployment and slowing wages.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, just released, has fallen to 69.1 this month, down on April’s 77.2.

That’s higher than expected, though, with Americans also less concerned about inflation than last month.

Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu explains:

Consumer sentiment fell back about 10% this May following three consecutive months of very little change. This 8.1 index-point decrease is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about five months.

The year-ahead outlook for business conditions saw a particularly notable decline, while views about personal finances were little changed.

Consumers expressed particular concern over labor markets; they expect unemployment rates to rise and income growth to slow. The prospect of continued high interest rates also weighed down consumer views. These deteriorating expectations suggest that multiple factors pose downside risk for consumer spending.

Still, sentiment remains almost 20% above a year ago and about 40% above the all-time historic low in June 2022, reflecting how much consumer views have improved as inflation eased.

I mentioned in the introduction that economic data – always interesting, often important! – becomes even more notable during an election.

And over the next six weeks, inflatiom, unemployment, GDP, retail sales and public finances figures will all be in the spotlight.

Our economics editor Larry Elliott explains:

Rishi Sunak’s slim chance of pulling off a victory against the odds in July’s general election depends on voters buying the argument that tough decisions taken since he became prime minister are paying off.

That claim will be tested over the next six weeks – with every piece of economic news more closely scrutinised than usual for evidence that the UK’s tentative economic recovery is gaining momentum or has started to falter.

Here’s the details:

Stock markets are ending the week on a slightly subdued note.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average share index has opened 18 points higher, or +0.05%, at 39,083 points, a day after its biggest drop of 2024.

In London, the FTSE 100 is down 22 points (-0.3%) at 8317, sliding away from the record highs we saw earlier this month.

Investors are anxious, as the likely date for the first cut to US interest rates has pushed towards the end of the year.

Raffi Boyadjian, lead investment analyst at XM, explains:

The hawkish commentary by Fed officials on Tuesday was underscored by the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. But topping it all up on Thursday were better-than-expected flash PMIs that pointed to a pickup in both business activity and prices in May.

The composite PMI, covering both manufacturing and services, was the strongest in two years. The most worrying aspect of the S&P Global survey was the acceleration in input and output costs, with only employment registering some weakness.

The data strengthened the case for ‘higher for longer’, with the Atlanta Fed’s Bostic signalling on Thursday that a rate cut may have to be delayed until the last three months of the year.

It’s a similar story for UK interest rates, where the first cut may not come until November – after inflation fell less than hoped in April.

Today’s retail sales report shows shoppers are still apprehensive, reports Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte:

“April’s retail sales were more disappointing than expected, once again being dampened by wet weather, deterring shoppers from the high street and impacting the sale of seasonal items.

“Though consumer confidence continues to rise, many remain apprehensive and are not yet loosening their purse strings, especially on non-essential items and goods such as clothing and footwear.

“Consumers are focused on value, with the likes of own-label food remaining resilient.

“Overall, this is a clear sign that, despite inflation easing, retailers’ road to recovery will require them to continue to invest into product ranges that target consumers of all budgets.”

Speaking of the US economy, do you know how GDP, employment levels, food and petrol prices or the stock market have fared under Joe Biden?

Well, you can test your knowledge with a rather fun interactive quiz here.

Good luck. I did quite well on the workforce question, but generally my trendline wasn’t as close as the median Guardian reader (still, they’re a bright lot!).

US durable goods rise again

Over in the US, sales of durable goods have risen unexpectedly, showing the resilience of the American economy.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased by $1.9bn or 0.7% to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.

This is the third consecutive monthly rise in a row, and better than the 0.8% fall which economists predicted.

March’s data has been revised down, though, to a 0.8% gain not the 2.6% bounce first recorded.

The Census Bureau adds:

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders were virtually unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion.

An eagerly awaited review of pricing in the UK water industry has been delayed by the general election.

Regulator Ofwat has announced that it has postponed the publication of its draft price control determinations for the water sector until Thursday 11 July. They had been scheduled for June, but this delay will now push the announcement beyond the general election on 4th July.

Ofwat says it is acting in line with the general election guidance for civil servants – during the pre-election purdah period, ministers, civil servants, and local authorities must exercise caution in making announcements or decisions that might affect the campaign.

Ofwat sets prices in the water industry every five years – the 2024 price review will come into effect on 1 April 2025.

Water companies are pushing for steep increases in bills, saying they need extra cash to tackle the UK’s sewage crisis and the climate emergency.

The future of Britain’s biggest water firm Thames Water, which wants to increase bills by 40%, could hinge on the decision.

Talks between Thames Water Ltd.’s parent company and its creditors are effectively frozen after UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a general election this week, Bloomberg reported yesterday.

Updated

G7 ministers and central bankers meet

Finance ministers and central bankers from across the G7 are gathered in Stresa, northern Italy, today to discuss issues such as support for Ukraine and how to react to China’s industrial policies.

The G7 are expected to discuss America’s push for a loan to Ukraine backed by the future income from some $300bn of frozen Russian assets.

But officials involved in the negotiations are sounding cautious about a breakthough today, saying there are legal and technical aspects to be hammered out

For the UK, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and Britain’s Treasury Director General, International Finance Lindsay Whyte attended today’s “family photo”:

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Eurasia Group, predicts G7 finance ministers will make progress on some legal and practical issues around leveraging frozen Russian assets at their meeting, but not make a final breakthrough.

Rahman writes:

The political decision will be left to G7 leaders at their summit on 13-15 June. Despite persistent European concerns, newfound political momentum behind leveraging frozen Russian assets to support more financing for Ukraine makes a political agreement next month and implementation this year the basecase (now a 55% probability, compared to 40% previously).

Updated

In France, climate activists have been protesting against oil giant TotalEnergies today.

Reuters has the details:

Climate activists climbed up a building near TotalEnergies’ Paris headquarters on Friday to protest the oil major’s climate strategy while others stormed the offices of Total investor Amundi, denouncing its holding in the group.

The actions came ahead of annual general meetings being held at both companies on Friday, as climate groups condemn ongoing investment in oil and gas production.

Barriers had already been erected around the entrances of Total’s offices in the French capital’s La Defense business district on Thursday evening, with employees told to work from home on Friday.

The Co-operative Bank is to return to its mutual roots after Coventry Building Society confirmed that it will acquire the bank from its hedge fund owners for £780m.

The deal has now been finalised after Coventry said it had made a non-binding cash offer for the bank last month that will create a lender with almost 5 million customers and an £89bn balance sheet.

Coventry, which is the UK’s second largest building society by group assets, said it remained committed to mutuality and the deal would allow the newly combined lender to increase its share of the mortgage market as well as give it a position in the current account and business banking markets.

The Co-operative Bank, which has 2.5 million retail customers and 94,000 small business customers, will become a subsidiary of Coventry Building Society, marking a return to its mutual roots.

Britain’s expecially wet 2024 has hurt the retail sector, reports Rob Wood, chief UK economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Wood points out that the past three months have seen “relentlessly bad weather, with rainfall 55% above average in February, 20% in March and 68% in April”.

But he said hopes of rainfall returning to more seasonal norms should mean the high street sees “less disruption”, and that wage growth and falling inflation should boost consumer spending.

Wood adds:

“With households already saving a larger fraction of their incomes than usual and reporting in ONS surveys that they have rebuilt their rainy day savings, we expect further increases in disposable income to feed through strongly to overall spending.”

Today’s retail sales reports shows that consumers bought 5% less stuff (retail sales volumes) last month than in April 2019.

But they spent almost 15% more, with inflation meaning people spent more but got less, as this chart shows:

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says:

Ah the weather. Yes it’s been terrible. No, you cannot really blame it for crappy retail sales. Also may I point out that whilst the value of retail sales has gone up this is entirely due to inflation – volumes have been declining since 2021 and are below pre-Covid levels.

Sterling dipped a bit on the news to trade back below $1.27.

April’s slump in retail spending shows “cost of living pressures” are far from over, says TUC general secretary, Paul Nowak:

“We need people to be able to spend in their local economies to boost growth and businesses. That’s the only way we’ll be able to achieve a sustainable recovery.

“But today’s slump in retail sales shows that families are still struggling with the cost of living crisis – with millions having to cut back.

“The huge pressure on household budgets is far from over. A toxic combination of soaring prices – and 14 years of flatlining wages – has shredded incomes.

“The Conservatives can brag all they like about their plan working. But the British public are not fools.

“Many bills are still going up and real wages are still worth less than in 2008.”

The drop in UK retail sales in April shows that high interest rates are hurting consumers, says businessman Hugh Osmond, founder of Punch Taverns.

Osmond warns that interest rates, currently 5.25%, are too high, posting on X:

The Bank of England are blind to real world data. Obviously poor weather was a big factor but online sales fell sharply too.

This retail sales fall is totally consistent with the unexpectedly (unexpected by BoE that is) huge rise in personal savings rates suggesting that high interest rates are now having an excessive effect.

3%-4% is the right range and the longer they wait, the more they will then overshoot on the downside.

Updated

The cost of living remains a major issue for the public, the latest Public opinions and social trends survey shows.

This month’s poll, just releaed, found that 55% of adults reported their cost of living had increased over the last month, while 42% said their cost of living had remained the same and 3% said it had decreased.

The most commonly reported cause of rising costs were food shopping (94%), fuel (61%), and gas and electricity bills (53%).

Stephen Bird steps down as Abrdn boss

Surprise news in the City this morning: Stephen Bird, the chief executive of asset manager Abrdn, is stepping down.

Bird’s tenure at Abrdn, former by the merger of Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management, was punctuated by a rebranding that saw the company shed most of its vowels, and attract plenty of derision.

The company has been hit by outflows, which reached £13.9bn in 2023, prompting it to cut 500 jobs. Reuters says Bird’s four-year tenure was “turbulent….marked by deep outflows of client cash and a controversial rebrand.”

And today, Abrdn announces it is “beginning the process of moving to fresh leadership”, with CFO Jason Windsor being appointed as interim group CEO while a new permament replacement CEO is found.

Abrdn says its board and Bird have “together agreed” that it is the right time for him to “hand over the reins” to his team.

Abdrn’s chairman, Sir Douglas Flint, says:

He joined us as the pandemic took hold and, despite the restrictions this imposed, spearheaded a fundamental reshaping of the company, leading from the front to create a company that can be competitive in a fast-evolving sector.

Adapting the inherited business model to be capable of generating sustainable and profitable growth required strategic vision, intense hard work and the courage to make tough but necessary decisions.

While this was underway, Stephen took time to assemble the talent needed to execute successfully on his strategic vision and he passes on to them, with confidence, the responsibility to execute the next stage of our transformation.

Bird’s 12 month notice period begins today, although he’ll work alongside Windsor until the end of June before beginning six month’s gardening leave in July.

As “a good leaver”, he’ll remain eliglble for various bonuses.

Energy prices: the political reaction

Energy prices are an early general election football, with all sides trying to please the crowd.

Claire Coutinho MP, energy secretary, has announced that the energy price cap would be retained in every year of the next parliament, if the Conservatives win July’s election.

The Conservatives are also pledging to make it easier for households to compare energy prices, and switch at the right time to benefit from lower tariffs.

Coutinho also claims the government’s “bold action” has brought energy bills down – though the 7% drop coming in July was actually due to falling wholesale prices in the energy markets.

Coutinho says:

“Labour does not have a serious approach to Britain’s energy security and they aren’t honest about the costs that their reckless net zero targets would place on households.

“Thanks to our bold action, energy bills are at their lowest in two years, now we’re telling suppliers to put consumers first and bring real competition back to the market - cutting bills further and improving customer service.

“Only the Conservatives have a clear plan for a secure future where we reach net zero without punishing families with extra costs.”

Labour’s plan is based around creating a publicly-owned green electricity generator, called Great British Energy, which Sir Kier Starmer says will cut bills and boost energy security.

Starmer says:

“Families are picking up the tab of 14 years of Tory energy failure and are expected to remain a staggering £400 a year worse off under the new price cap.”

“Labour will stop families paying over the odds for energy. Great British Energy, our new publicly-owned energy company, will invest in homegrown clean energy to boost energy independence and cut bills for good.”

Sir Ed Davey said the Liberal Democrats would slash energy bills by investing in home insulation and boosting renewables.

“Energy bills remain far higher than five years ago, on top of sky-high mortgages and rents and prices in the shops.

“Families and pensioners are feeling worse off after years of Conservative chaos.

“Liberal Democrats would slash energy bills by investing in insulating people’s homes and boosting renewables – the cheapest, cleanest and most popular form of energy.”

Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer argrees that insulation, rather than “fiddling with the price cap”, is the answer to getting energy bills down:

“A mass programme of government-backed, council delivered home insulation starting immediately after the General Election is a win-win solution for people and the planet and offers people hope and positive change.

“We could reduce bills for the long term and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by building new homes that are easier and cheaper to heat and boosting insulation in existing homes. Insulating people’s homes means they can stay warm while using less energy, save money and produce fewer harmful carbon emissions.”

Updated

Despite this summer’s welcome cut to the energy price cap (see here), a typical annual household energy bill is expected to be 60 per cent (or £670) higher this year than in 2021, reports the Resolution Foundation.

Emily Fry, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, says:

“Energy bills more than doubled in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and deepened the cost-of-living crisis across Europe. Households will be relieved to see the energy price cap fall once again to below £1,600, with households spending £370 less for energy this year than last.

“However, the shock has left households paying more for less energy, with more than six in ten households still worried about paying their bills. And with the majority of gas consumption taking place in winter, it’s the winter price cap that matters most for living standards.”

Online retail sales, which ought to benefit from bad weather, also fell in April.

The ONS reports that non-store retailing (online shops, plus stalls and markets) fell by 0.9% in April – a smaller decline than the 2.3% drop in total sales volumes.

The amount spent online fell by 1.2% during April, and by 1.5% over the year.

But as overall spending fell by more, online’s share of sales rose to 26.5%, from 26.2% in March.

Spending on petrol and diesel also fell last month, as motorists were hit by higher costs.

This morning’s retail sales eport shows that automotive fuel sales volumes fell by 4.9% in April, which is the largest monthly fall since October 2021,

Retailers reported the cost of living and the impact of rising fuel prices as factors, the ONS says.

BRC: gloomy weather and cost of living squeeze dampened spending

The cost of living squeeze, and the bad weather, combined to drive down retail sales in April (see opening post), retail experts say.

Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, says struggling customers resisted buying ‘big ticket’ items last month.

That’s a reminder that households aren’t suddenly wealthier just because the annual inflation rate has fallen….

Hamer explains:

“Sales volumes saw significant decline in April, falling for the third time in five months as the gloomy, wet weather combined with the cost of living squeeze dampened spending. Cosmetics continued to sell well, and computer sales were boosted thanks to promotional activity and consumers upgrading their tech a few years after the pandemic surge in tech sales.

Meanwhile, clothing and footwear and furniture failed to deliver due to the poor weather and consumers thinking twice before buying high ticket items.

Calls for more help needed households trapped in energy debt

UK politicians are being urged to offer more help to households struggling with their energy bills, despite this morning’s cut to the price cap.

Charity National Debtline is calling for a “Help to Repay” scheme, under which the government would provide repayment matching and debt write off options for households who face unaffordable energy debts.

Steve Vaid, chief executive of the Money Advice Trust, the charity that runs National Debtline, explains:

“The modest fall in the energy price cap will provide some relief to households, yet energy arrears remain at record levels. Millions of people will remain trapped in energy debt without further support.

“Urgent action is needed to help struggling households.

“Tackling mounting energy arrears should be a priority for the next Government, through a Help to Repay Scheme to ensure people have access to a safe route out of energy debt.

“I would urge anyone worried about their energy bills to seek free, independent debt advice from a service like National Debtline as soon as possible. Our advisers are here to help and can talk you through the right options for you.”

National Debtline also reports that more than a third of callers to its helpline are struggling with energy arrears.

Updated

Retail sales much weaker than forecast

Retail sales across Great Britain in April are much weaker than expected.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a drop of around 0.4% on the month, so they’ll be startled to learn that volumes shrank by 2.3%.

Ashley Webb, economist at Capital Economics, told clients this morning:

The 2.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was much bigger than most expected (CE forecast -0.5% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), due to the unusually wet weather discouraging shoppers from visiting physical stores.

But as inflation falls further this year, rising real household disposable income should boost retail activity throughout the rest of 2024.

"Retailers will be concerned about today’s figures"

Retailers will be worried by the tumble in sales last month, says Erin Brookes, European Retail and Consumer Lead at consultancy Alvarez & Marsal:

After two consecutive months of stagnant growth, retailers will be concerned about today’s figures and the outlook for the traditionally buoyant spring and summer period.

It’s clear that shoppers were still not in the mood to spend, potentially dampened by an early Easter and a very wet April. With clothing retailers, sports equipment stores, games and toys stores, and furniture stores suffering the most.

UK energy price cap to fall 7%

Newsflash: British households should benefit from lower energy costs this summer.

The energy price cap in Great Britain will fall by 7% from July to September, thanks to a fall in wholesale gas prices, energy regulator Ofgem has announced.

Ofgem says its cap will fall by the equivalent of £122 per year this summer, meaning the typical household would pay £1,568 per year (although there’s no limit to how high bills can go).

This cap, on the average cost of a unit of energy, reflects the average annual dual-fuel bill for 29m households, and takes effect from July until the end of September.

That’s a fall from its current level of £1,690, easing the pressure on household finances.

But, while a drop in energy bills is clearly welcome for hard-pressed consumers, households will still be paying much more than a few years ago.

My colleague Alex Lawson explains:

It still leaves bills far above the £1,154 seen in the summer of 2021, before the energy crisis. Wholesale gas prices began to rise sharply in 2021 and escalated after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Bill have since eased from their peak in 2023 – when the cap reached £4,279, but the government subsidised bills to keep them at £2,500 – but remain above pre-crisis levels, meaning millions of households are expected to remain in fuel poverty.

Updated

Introduction: UK retail sales fall sharply

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the economy.

Economic news takes on extra significance in an election campaign. Every survey and data release becomes a healthcheck on the economy, scrutinised for signs that the economy is improving, or ailing.

And this morning, we’ve just learned that retail spending weakened last month, with sales volumes and values both falling sharply in April.

Retail sales across Great Britain tumbled by 2.3% in April, the Office for National Statistics reports, following a fall of 0.2% in March (which has been revised down from 0.0%).

On an annual basis, retail sales volumes were 2.7% lower than in April 2023 – and 3.8% below their levels before the Covid-19 pandemic. Not an encouraging economic signal.

Sales volumes fell across most sectors, with clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture stores doing badly.

The ONS blames the rain and storms which hit Britain in April, saying that “poor weather reduced footfall.” Last month was the UK’s sixth wettest April since 1836.

Sales volumes at department, clothing, household and other non-food stores fell by 4.1% in April, which is the joint largest fall since January 2021.

Phil Monkhouse, UK Country Manager at global financial services firm Ebury, says:

“Retailers were caught in the rain in April as retail sales volumes unexpectedly dropped by 2.3%, marking the first significant month-on-month downturn since December’s 3.3% cliff face drop.

“Cooling inflation and a marked dip in energy prices in April didn’t translate to heightened footfall as sticky interest rates and the wetter weather held back consumers from splashing out.

“With the snap general election announcement injecting fresh uncertainty into the minds of consumers, retailers should not bet on the summer weather significantly lifting spending any time soon.”

The slump in retail spending comes despite a rise in UK consumer confidence, which has risen this month to its highest in nearly two-and-a-half years.

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index rose by two points in May to minus 17, the highest level since December 2021, lifted by improved optimism about personal finances.

The agenda

  • 7am BST: UK retail sales for April

  • 7am BST: Ofgem sets UK energy price cap

  • 1.30pm BST: US durable goods orders for April

  • 3pm BST: University of Michigan’s index of US consumer confidence

Updated

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