All signs point to a hold on the official cash rate at 5.5 per cent when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets for the second time this year.
The nine members of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's shadow board are all tipping no change to the rate as are economists at Kiwi banks.
"We don't see net grounds for the RBNZ to change its thinking materially from February," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.
"An on-hold OCR decision is being taken as a given."
Headline inflation was measured at 4.7 per cent in 2023, and is forecast to be back within the target band of one to three per cent by the end of 2024.
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said he believed RBNZ governor Adrian Orr wanted the consumer price index to have a two in front of it before moving the OCR downwards.
"On our forecasts, inflation breaks below three per cent in the third quarter of this year," he said.
"And the 3Q CPI data comes out in October so the soonest they can cut (without some sort of economic meltdown) is November."
Victoria University of Wellington economics professor Viv Hall, who tipped an OCR of 5.5 per cent for "some time yet", said politics could also get in the way.
Income tax relief set down for the coalition government's first budget - as well as other measures - could have an inflationary effect which scares the RBNZ off cuts.
"New Zealand's May 30 Budget (could) have had a material influence on the OCR in 12 months' time," he said.
Prof Hall also said global interest rate movements and upside risks to non-tradables inflation could also blow the OCR in other directions.
Ms Zollner said rising oil prices - more than eight per cent higher than the last RBNZ forecast - and a fall of 3.3 per cent in the NZD trade-weighted index would affect tradable inflation.
New Zealand is currently enduring a shallow double-dip recession, with four of the last five quarters producing negative growth.
There will be no updated economic forecasts at this meeting, with the central bank's next figures to come at its May 22 meeting.
