Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
AAP
AAP
Politics
Poppy Johnston

Reserve Bank December rate rise on course

This week's focus is on the RBA to see how it's factoring in recent strong wages and jobs data. (Bianca De Marchi/AAP PHOTOS) (AAP)

All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia this week to see how it's factoring in recent strong wages and jobs data, ahead of its next interest rate meeting in December.

At its board meeting earlier this month, the central bank floated the near term possibility of keeping the cash rate steady at 2.85 per cent up to Christmas to allow monetary policy tightenings to date to flow through the economy.

But since then, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has published robust wages and employment figures that suggest the economy is still roaring along and further rate rises may be needed to temper demand.

RBA governor Philip Lowe is due to speak at a Committee for the Economic Development of Australia dinner in Melbourne on Tuesday and his speech will be scanned for any changes in the central bank's messaging.

But AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver said a pause was unlikely given the solid 3.1 per cent rise in wages in the year ended September and a surprisingly low jobless rate of 3.4 per cent for October.

"A pause is unlikely in December though and we continue to expect another 0.25 per cent rate hike but a pause is likely from early next year where we expect the cash rate to peak at 3.1 per cent," he said.

The RBA board does not meet in January but will gather on the first Tuesday in February.

National Australia Bank economists expect a string of 25 basis point hikes in December, February and March, taking the cash rate to 3.60 per cent.

Financial markets are currently pricing in a 20 basis point rise in December and a peak of 3.80 by mid-2023.

Ahead of Dr Lowe's speech - titled interest rate signals on "Price Stability, the Supply Side and Prosperity" - ANZ and Roy Morgan will release the latest weekly consumer confidence indicator.

Last week, sentiment ticked up for the first time in six weeks.

By midweek, the S&P Global is due to issue the preliminary purchasing managers' indexes for November and the National Skills Commission will drop more details on skilled job vacancies for October.

The ABS will release more detailed labour force stats on Thursday that will uncover regional and demographic trends.

It's also parliamentary sitting week, with workplace relations reform set to be debated in the Senate.

The Albanese government wants to pass the laws by year's end but has been tripped up by concerns the expanded multi-employer bargaining provisions will have unintended consequences.

For the laws to pass the upper house, they will need the support of all 12 Greens senators and at least one crossbencher, with negotiations underway with key senators including independent David Pocock.

Meanwhile, the Australian stock market could edge higher at the open on Monday, after Wall Street ended higher in choppy trading as investors shrugged off hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials about interest rate hikes.

In the US on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 199.37 points, or 0.59 per cent, to 33,745.69, the S&P 500 gained 18.78 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 3,965.34 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.11 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 11,146.06.

The Australian SPI200 futures contract is pointing to a slightly stronger local open after rising 24 points to 7192 points on the weekend.

On Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed 16.1 points, or 0.23 per cent higher, at 7151.8 while the broader All Ordinaries ended up 15.7 points, or 0.21 per cent, at 7354.7.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.