The historically chalky women’s NCAA tournament has been, well, not quite as chalky so far, as the tourney has its first Cinderella in years in Virginia—the first team to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16 in women’s March Madness history. There have been upsets—No. 6 Notre Dame over No. 3 Ohio State—and enough near upsets to create a sense that we have an especially competitive Sweet 16 on our hands.
So now that we have a full field of 16 teams, let’s see how they stack up against each other based on how they’ve performed in two rounds of tournament play.
Let’s reseed the women’s Sweet 16.
No. 1 UConn
Actual seed: No. 1 overall, No. 1 in Fort Worth Regional 1
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 4 North Carolina
Nothing about the Huskies’ play thus far would convince anyone that this isn’t still the best team in the tournament. UConn completely overwhelmed Syracuse in a convincing second-round win with one of the most dominant quarters in tournament history in which it scored 31 unanswered points, the first such run in at least the last seven women’s NCAA tournaments.
No. 2 UCLA
Actual seed: No. 2 overall, No. 1 in Sacramento Regional 2
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 4 Minnesota
The Bruins surprisingly let No. 16 Cal Baptist stick around in the first half before unleashing a can of you-know-what on the poor Lancers in the second half, which saw UCLA outscore them 52–9. The Bruins struggled to find their three-point shooting stroke in the first round and while they shot the three ball better against Oklahoma State, the likes of Gianna Kneepkens and Kiki Rice have continued to be inefficient overall. Fortunately, Lauren Betts has been her usual dominant self and I’d be willing to bet that Kneepkens and Rice turn it on offensively sooner rather than later.
No. 3 Texas
Actual seed: No. 3 overall, No. 1 in Fort Worth Regional 3
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. No. 5 Kentucky
Texas is fresh off of a dominant, 100–58 win over Oregon in which Madison Booker scored a career-high 40 points and had zero turnovers in a perfectly played game. Texas will always be dangerous when Booker is on the hunt like she was against the Ducks, but this team is downright scary when the Longhorns are hitting threes the way they were against Oregon (8-for-12).
No. 4 South Carolina
Actual seed: No. 4 overall, No. 1 in Sacramento Regional 4
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
The Gamecocks responded to their loss to Texas in the SEC tournament final by winning its first-round game over Southern by 69 points, the biggest margin in program history, then completely dismantling USC in the second round. Few teams can match the Gamecocks’ overwhelming size in the frontcourt and deadly accuracy from three-point range.
No. 5 LSU
Actual seed: No. 5 overall, No. 2 in Sacramento Regional 2
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 3 Duke
The Tigers have scored 100-plus points in back-to-back games to set the record for most 100-point games in a single season in women’s NCAA Division I history (16). But the most impressive part about LSU’s latest win, a 101–47 rout over Texas Tech, was that leading scorer MiLaysia Fulwiley was in foul trouble and played just 16 minutes.
No. 6 Michigan
Actual seed: No. 8 overall, No. 2 in Fort Worth Regional 3
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. No. 3 Louisville
The Wolverines’ sophomore backcourt trio of Syla Swords, Olivia Olson and Mila Holloway has so far given Michigan as much offensive firepower as any team left in the tourney. If the Wolverines’ full-court press—which generated 22 turnovers against NC State—is going to be that devastating for opposing offenses, then this team is truly going to be a tough out the rest of the way. Also consider this: Michigan opponents thus far have turned the ball over 42 times in two games while Michigan has amassed just 15 turnovers as an offense.
No. 7 Vanderbilt
Actual seed: No. 7 overall, No. 2 in Fort Worth Regional 1
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
Mikayla Blakes, as expected, has been an unstoppable force with 55 points in two games. Most impressive for Vanderbilt has been the help Blakes has gotten form her friends, as Aubrey Galvan has 29 points in two games while Justine Pissott lit up Illinois from three-point range in the Commodores’ second-round win. Vanderbilt was uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball—19 turnovers—against Illinois, something it will have to correct with Notre Dame up next on the schedule.
No. 8 Duke
Actual seed: No. 9 overall, No. 3 in Sacramento Regional 2
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 2 LSU
Duke’s defense is clicking at the right time, as the Blue Devils gave Baylor fits, holding the Bears to just eight points in each of the first two quarters while forcing a whopping 23 turnovers. Duke’s length up and down the roster is enough to give any team trouble. But the Blue Devils will need to shoot a lot better, particularly from three-point range, and find a way to keep Toby Fournier—who had five fouls against the Bears—out of foul trouble if they want to keep this run going.
No. 9 Notre Dame
Actual seed: No. 21 overall, No. 6 in Fort Worth Regional 1
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 2 Vanderbilt
Unsurprisingly, Hannah Hidalgo has been a wrecking ball on both ends and has already racked up 16 steals in two games. Hidalgo is the fox in the hen house that can ruin any team’s offensive plans. But most importantly, the team around Hidalgo is really gelling, as Cassandre Prosper, Vanessa de Jesus and Iyana Moore combined for 41 points and came up with some timely shots in the upset win over Ohio State.
No. 10 TCU
Actual seed: No. 12 overall, No. 3 in Sacramento Regional 4
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. No 10 Virginia
The Horned Frogs looked mighty impressive in their 46-point first-round win over UC San Diego, in which Olivia Miles notched a triple-double and the TCU offense hummed to the tune of 23 assists and 13 made three-pointers. Then, the Horned Frogs followed it up with a dud against Washington, which led for 24 minutes of the game before Miles put the team on her back in overtime. The first-round version of the Horned Frogs can make a deep run. The second-round version can lose to anyone.
No. 11 Louisville
Actual seed: No. 10 overall, No. 3 in Fort Worth Regional 3
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. No. 2 Michigan
Louisville struggled early in the first round against Vermont with Imari Berry and Elif Istanbulluoglu in foul trouble, but Mackenly Randolph helped the Cardinals pull away with a timely double-double. Then, the Cardinals, dominating the glass, squeaked past No. 6 Alabama, who stuck around as the Cardinals struggled to shoot the ball, particularly from three-point range and the charity stripe. Louisville may not get away with these mistakes—as well as its poor defense of the three-point line—against the best of the best in the Sweet 16 and beyond.
No. 12 Virginia
Actual seed: No. 40 overall, No. 10 in Sacramento Regional 4
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. No. 3 TCU
The Cavaliers have done what no other First Four team in women’s NCAA tournament history has ever done: advance to the Sweet 16. Guard Kymora Johnson has scored 28 points in back-to-back games and has made big shot after big shot when Virginia has needed it. The x-factor for the Cavaliers? Junior forward Sa’Myah Smith, who dominated Georgia with a double-double in round one, then found herself in foul trouble against the Hawkeyes. If Smith can dominate the interior against a TCU team that excels on the glass, the Cavaliers might just have a shot at the upset.
No. 13 Oklahoma
Actual seed: No. 13 overall, No. 4 in Sacramento Regional 4
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. South Carolina
Oklahoma showed a lot of grit in a second-round test against Michigan State in which the Sooners were trailing at the half before they mounted a second-half comeback. That kind of win, as well as the knowledge that they've already beaten Sweet 16 opponent South Carolina this season, will serve them well. But Oklahoma shot just 4-of-22 from three-point range and committed 23 turnovers in the win over the Spartans. There’s simply no way the Soonesr be able to get away with that against any of the teams left in the field.
No. 14 North Carolina
Actual seed: No. 15 overall, No. 4 in Fort Worth Regional 1
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina’s offensive strategy has flip-flopped in rounds one and two, as the Tar Heels shot a bevy of three-pointers in its first-round win over Western Illinois, knocking down just 10 of 40 attempts from deep. UNC then dialed back its perimeter shooting against Maryland, but will need to find a more balanced offensive attack if it wants to test the defending champions. One way it can do that? Move the ball more. The Tar Heels averaged just under 16 assists per game during the season, but have averaged just 11 per game so far in the tourney.
No. 15 Kentucky
Actual seed: No. 18 overall, No. 5 in Fort Worth 3 Regional
Upcoming game: Saturday vs. Texas
Georgia Tech transfer Tonie Morgan has come up huge for the Wildcats, as she flirted with a triple-double in the first round against James Madison then repeatedly attacked the basket and helped keep West Virginia in foul trouble en route to draining nine of 10 free throws. Morgan will have to play better against Texas in the Sweet 16 than she did against the Longhorns back in February, when she had six turnovers. But if that game—and the Wildcats’ two tourney showings thus far—have proved anything it’s that Kentucky has the size to challenge a team like Texas.
No. 16 Minnesota
Actual seed: No. 16 overall, No. 4 in Sacramento 2 Regional
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 1 UCLA
Before I go full curmudgeon here, let me say this: The Golden Gophers provided one of the thrilling moments of this tournament so far with Amaya Battle’s game-winner against Ole Miss. But so far, Minnesota hasn’t exactly looked convincing in either of its wins, as the Golden Gophers were on upset watch for three quarters against No. 13 Green Bay in the first round before a that’s-more-like-it, 30-point fourth quarter. On paper, Minnesota’s ability to attack the paint with its size while draining the three-ball makes it a worthy matchup for Sweet 16 opponent UCLA. But the Golden Gophers will have to play a lot better than they have if they want to challenge the Bruins.
More March Madness from Sports Illustrated
- College Basketball’s Coaching Carousel: Tracking the Hirings, Firings and Rumored Moves
- Cinderella Is Officially Dead; Sweet 16 Is Loaded | Others Receiving Votes
- Dan Hurley Still Coaching UConn, Not Lakers, in Part Thanks to Tom Izzo’s Friendly Advice
- Reseeding the Sweet 16: Ranking Every Team Left in Men’s March Madness
- Coach K Offers Funny Reponse to Rick Pitino Bringing Up Christian Laettner’s Iconic Shot
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Reseeding the Sweet 16: Ranking Every Team Left in Women’s March Madness.
