SEATTLE - With the 2024 presidential elections in the rearview mirror, exit polls can be used to learn more about why and how people voted the way they did. One of the most interesting trends this year is the Latino vote and its impact on the presidential race that ended up propelling Donald Trump back to the White House.
During the last weeks of the campaign, Tony Hinchcliffe, a comedian who spoke at a Trump rally in New York City, called Puerto Rico an island of "garbage." As Republicans tried to minimize the harm caused by Hinchcliffe's remarks, Democrats believed this would secure the support of the Latino vote ahead of the November 5 elections. But as exit polls reveal, nothing the comedian said —nor Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric during the campaign— influenced the way Latinos voted.
According to some exit polls, Trump increased his share of the Latino vote nationwide, going from 32% in the 2020 elections to 45% in 2024. Not only did Trump made inroads with Latinos, but Democrats lost a considerable share of voters in the demographic compared to previous elections.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the Latino vote by a margin of 38 percentage points. Four years later, Joe Biden's margin win with Hispanics had shrunk to 33 points, while this year, according to early exit polling conducted by CNN, Harris's margin of victory among that demographic was just eight percentage points.
Trump's campaign radically changed its strategy for the 2024 presidential elections, launching ads courting Latino culture and roundtables including members of the demographic in discussions about the economy and border security–priorities early polls indicated would affect who Latinos vote for in 2024.
That disparity was also confirmed by an NBC News exit poll released during Election Day, in which it indicated that 53% of Latinos who voted identified as Democrats, compared to 45% who said they were Republicans.
But historically, if a Democratic candidate has hopes of winning the presidency, they must secure the Latino vote. According to an Axios review of exit polls going back 50 years, the investigation found that when Democratic presidential candidates get less than about 64% of the Latino vote, they typically lose.
Since 2008, Democratic presidential candidates have seen their Latino support reduced from 67% when Barack Obama first ran for president, to 53% in this year's elections.
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is poised to win the highest share of the Hispanic vote for a Republican IN HISTORY.@AbeEnriquez joins @MeritStreet to explain this historic result delivered by the Latino vote in this presidential election.pic.twitter.com/F0MD1qI5PU
— Bienvenido (@bienvenido_us) November 6, 2024
By analyzing exit polls, we can also see a great disparity between Latinos when it comes to the gender gap. Hispanic men swung from voting for Biden by 23 percentage points in 2020 to voting for Trump by ten percentage points this year. In comparison, Hispanic women voted for Harris by 24 points.
As Republicans across the country celebrated Trump's victory, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio said in a statement that the GOP is now a "multi-ethnic, multi-racial coalition" and urged Democrats "to put aside their grievances" so that both parties can work together and "do what is right for our great country."
The Republican Party is now a multi-ethnic, multi-racial coalition of hard-working Americans who love their country.
— Senator Marco Rubio (@SenMarcoRubio) November 6, 2024
My full statement on last night’s historic presidential election: pic.twitter.com/mzDEBWYe9o
How did Trump win the Latino vote?
In an exclusive interview with The Latin Times, Alejandro Flores, a political psychology expert and Assistant Professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, said that there is a "perception" that Democrats take Latino support for granted, making them feel like they are only acknowledged during election time.
"So, while Trump's efforts may not be perfect, his campaign's attention to Latino voters can stand out against a backdrop of inconsistent engagement from the Democratic side," Flores said.
Flores added that, by using Spanish-language ads and cultural cues, Trump is "signaling that he gets Latino culture, that he respects and values it. We've seen ads this week featuring salsa music, MAGA hats, and more Spanish than we might have expected. In theory, it's supposed to make Latino voters feel seen and valued—and it does work to an extent."
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