With less than two weeks until Election Day, more than 29 million pre-election ballots have already been cast across 47 states and the District of Columbia. Data collected by a company specializing in data analytics for Democrats, academics, and advocacy groups reveals interesting insights into the early voting patterns.
Registered Republicans have increased their share of early voting compared to four years ago, now making up 32% of the vote in 26 states with comparable data. In contrast, registered Democrats account for 42% of early voters, down from 47% in the previous election cycle.
It's important to note that this data only reflects who is voting early and not their political preferences. Campaigns often encourage supporters to vote early to streamline resource allocation in the final days of the race.
A significant portion of early voters, about a quarter, are unaffiliated with either major party, underscoring their potential impact on the election outcome.
A recent poll by the Pew Research Center indicates that individuals planning to vote early are more likely to support Kamala Harris than Donald Trump.
In key swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, Republicans constitute a larger proportion of early voters compared to the same point in the 2020 election. While overall voter turnout is lower than during the pandemic-affected 2020 election, the decline is less pronounced among registered Republicans.
Notably, party-specific pre-election vote data is unavailable for critical states like Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin due to their lack of party registration.
