Republican Eric Hovde's chances of unseating Democratic opponent Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate seat have increased, with the latter's lead slimming to razor-thin margins, according to the most recent polling and with Election Day less than a week away.
The latest survey, conducted by AtlasIntel among 1,470 voters between October 25 and 29, shows Baldwin ahead by one percentage point, getting 49% of the support compared to Hovde's 48%.
Another one sponsored by the Republican Party and conducted by SoCal Strategies and, On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics among 600 likely voters on October 28 and 29, shows the same margin.
Most surveys conducted since mid-October feature similar margins. Baldwin's largest lead is of four percentage points in two studies, while Hovde is ahead in two out of 14 released since October 16, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average.
It is a similar situation as the presidential race, where Kamala Harris is currently leading by less than one percentage point. The Democrat currently gets 48.2% of the support to Donald Trump's 47.4%, a lead that has considerably shrunk over the past weeks, considering it stood at 3.8 percentage points in late August.
Republicans have been investing heavily in Hovde, with with $21 million in spots reserved between mid October and Nov. 5 compared to $15 million in spots reserved by Democrats.
Most of that spending comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, the political action committee led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which has reserved $13.1 million in ad spots. The PAC has recently come under criticism by other Republicans for what they claim is McConnell playing favoritism in allocating funds.
Regardless, Hovde is seeking to seize the funds. "The momentum's on my side," Hovde said in early October during an event in Milwaukee. "I plan to win this race. I will win this race because I'm going to stay focused on what matters." In fact, nonpartisan forecaster The Cook Political Report shifted the race to "toss-up" status this month.
Baldwin's campaign "has been very vocal with their supporters that this race is tightening," according to Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist Thad Nation, and that's "absolutely" prompting more concern among Democrats in the closely watched contest.
A win in Wisconsin is critical for Democrats as they seek to retain control of the Senate, particularly as the odds are currently against their favor since they have more seats to defend than Republicans.
The GOP needs just two seats to take control of the chamber of Congress, and with some of Baldwin's fellow Democratic incumbents being increasingly comfortable, this scenario seems as plausible as ever. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy is now favored to oust Sen. Jon Tester (D), and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio is facing a toss-up race against Republican Bernie Moreno. The open Senate seat in Michigan is also rated a toss-up.
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