Shortly after Republicans' disappointing November election, Dave McCormick hosted several dozen GOP strategists, donors, and insiders for drinks and food at his stately home in Pittsburgh's Squirrel Hill neighborhood.
For some, it was a bittersweet moment: If McCormick had been their U.S. Senate candidate against John Fetterman, a number of guests thought, maybe it would have been a victory party instead.
But it also left some Republicans hopeful McCormick might take another shot. Some of the state's most prominent GOP insiders now hope he'll run again next year, against three-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey.
McCormick is certainly making the moves for a potential run. After falling just short against celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz in last year's GOP Senate primary, McCormick was a visible presence at December's Pennsylvania Society gathering of political insiders in New York. He walked through the agricultural extravaganza at the Pennsylvania Farm Show last week, and he has a book coming out in March, Superpower in Peril, featuring the kind of themes that presage a campaign.
"Though our country is headed in the wrong direction, decline isn't inevitable. What matters is what we do next," McCormick tweeted Tuesday to promote the book. "That's what my new book is all about — a plan to renew America."
GOP insiders say he has started interviewing media firms for a potential campaign.
People who have spoken to McCormick say the former hedge fund CEO, George W. Bush administration official, and West Point graduate hasn't made any final decisions but is clearly laying the groundwork to jump back into electoral politics if he chooses to.
He could have some prominent backers.
"For the benefit of the party, I think he would be a very, very strong candidate," said Andy Reilly, Pennsylvania's Republican national committeeman.
He pointed to McCormick's showing last year, when he came within about 900 votes of Oz, even though former President Donald Trump had backed the TV star.
"That shows me he has great strength," Reilly said.
"I hope he's running for Senate," said Rob Gleason, a former GOP state chair who endorsed McCormick in last year's primary. "I've suggested it. He didn't commit to anything. He only said, 'We'll be talking in the future.'"
Talk about a 2024 Senate race is still extraordinarily early for most, and even those optimistic about a McCormick run say they expect he'll wait until summer, at least, to make any formal decisions.
But many Republicans say they hope to avoid the divisive and damaging primaries that defined their failed campaigns for governor and Senate in 2022. McCormick's supporters hope he can unify the party — or at least scare off most other contenders with his name recognition and gigantic bank account.
"There's a lot of talk in Republican political circles about getting together and getting organized right now for 2024," Gleason said, adding that the party is "learning some lessons from the past election."
Few other names are being seriously discussed this early as potential GOP Senate candidates. Several insiders mentioned Treasurer Stacy Garrity as someone who might consider higher office, though they also questioned if she'd be able to raise the money required for a Senate race. Still, last year's sprawling primary suggests there will be no shortage of people interested.
"I think it's the duty of the party to try to cleanly and effectively nominate someone through our process," Reilly said, "and I think someone like Dave would have a leg up with respect to seeking an endorsement as far as the money his campaign spent last election. I think people know him now."
McCormick supporters say his combination of Pennsylvania roots, business experience, military exploits, and personal wealth make him a formidable candidate — one with the experience of a high-profile 2022 campaign that put his name and face on TVs across the state.
McCormick, who grew up in Bloomsburg, earned a Bronze Star in the first Gulf War and until late 2021 led the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates. His wife, Dina Powell McCormick, is a Goldman Sachs executive and was a top official in the Trump administration. Their wealth gave McCormick the wherewithal to drop $14.4 million of his own money into his campaign and to buy a $2.8 million home in Pittsburgh after spending more than a decade in Connecticut. His high-finance friends powered super PACs that spent more than $21.3 million more on his behalf.
"He's doing everything from my vantage point that shows he's going to run," said Josh Novotney, a Republican lobbyist from Philadelphia. "He'd be a top-tier candidate out of the gate."
But Democrats argue McCormick also bears scars from last year's race, and would carry into 2024 the vulnerabilities that hampered his run against Oz and other contenders.
McCormick, despite his background in the business-friendly GOP of the Bush era, pitched himself as an "America First" candidate in Trump's mold, only for the former president to reject him as "a liberal Wall Street Republican" and the candidate of the "Washington establishment." While Trump's influence may be fading, the former president could again lead the GOP ticket, which would create a potentially awkward situation for McCormick.
Meanwhile, McCormick's opponents hammered him for his hedge fund's substantial investments in China, and for McCormick's personal praise in the 2000s of China's growing economic strength. (At the time, that was a widely held view in both parties). And while McCormick has Pennsylvania roots, Democrats would attack him much as they did Oz: calling him an opportunist too rich to understand everyday voters.
"David McCormick is a damaged candidate who spent millions and millions of dollars embracing the most radical fringes of the Republican base and still lost the primary to a quack doctor," said Jack Doyle, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. "If he does decide to run again, we can expect another nasty GOP primary."
(McCormick, though political aides, did not respond to requests for comment).
The biggest hurdle for McCormick might be the opponent. Casey, son of a former governor, has won three Senate elections in dominant fashion. His family name is ingrained in Pennsylvania politics.
Republicans argue that he's a weak senator and has benefited from soft opponents, but they've never been able to lay a hand on him. Casey hasn't announced a formal reelection bid, but has given every indication he plans to run for a fourth term. Casey announced on Jan. 5 that he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer, but said he has an "excellent" prognosis and expects little disruption to his work.
"Right now, Senator Casey is focused on his health and continuing to deliver for Pennsylvanians in Washington," said Casey spokesperson Mairead Lynn. "Most Pennsylvania voters want a break from campaigns and there will be plenty of time for politics in the coming months."
