The Ohio Senate race between incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown and businessman Bernie Moreno is in a dead heat with few days remaining before the election as both parties vie for a majority in the Upper House. Recent polling shows both candidates with narrow leads in the low single-digits, making the race a margin of error one.
A poll conducted by ActiVote between October 14 and 28 among 400 likely voters shows Moreno narrowly ahead, with a lead of two percentage points. This poll has an expected margin of error of 4.9%.
Another poll, sponsored by the GOP and carried out by Trafalgar Group among 1,127 likely voters, shows the Trump ally at 47.2%, just behind Brown's 48.0%. Approximately 3.0% of those surveyed are undecided, with a margin of error of 2.9%. The poll was undertaken from October 25 to 28.
Nationally, Trafalgar's poll indicates that 51.7% of Ohio voters support Donald Trump, while 45.6% favor Kamala Harris, leaving just 1.4% undecided and making the congressional race a much tighter one than the presidential one, where the former president is expected to win.
Ad spending in Ohio has been significantly higher than in other states this election cycle, making the race the most expensive one in the country.
The Senate Leadership Fund, linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is investing heavily in Moreno's campaign, spending more than on any other GOP candidate for the Upper House this year. Concretely, the Senate Leadership Fund and related groups spending about $161 million on TV and digital ads to bolster Moreno, according to a new Axios report. This amount nearly doubles the $83 million spent on David McCormick in Pennsylvania.
The Moreno campaign has contributed around $26 million, a smaller share compared to other GOP campaigns. However, when considering ad costs, the proportion of Moreno's ads from super PACs is comparable to those in Pennsylvania. Some GOP strategists have expressed frustration over Moreno's campaign strategy, suggesting he should have done more to introduce himself to voters during the summer months.
Despite these concerns, Moreno's team has focused on different advertising strategies, emphasizing streaming platforms to reach younger voters. A spokesperson for Moreno highlighted that traditional campaigning methods may not resonate with today's electorate.
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