The latest jobs data, sourced from the Carlyle Group‘s proprietary reporting, shows hiring nearly ground to a halt in September — recording the weakest jobs report since the immediate aftermath of the 2020 recession.
With the federal government on shutdown and official Bureau of Labor Statistics figures unavailable, Carlyle Group stepped in to provide an alternative snapshot.
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The data revealed only 17,000 jobs were created in September, which is dramatically lower than the 54,000 predicted by economists, according to Reuters.
The September jobs data also comes in behind the already disappointing 22,000 jobs added in August.
Jobs Report Details
The sluggish jobs increase follows a trend of labor market cooling throughout the summer. Earlier months — June and July — had seen approximately 35,000 new jobs per month, with significant downward revisions for those figures as well.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021, and the pace of hiring is at decade lows outside of pandemic disruptions.
Analysts point to a combination of factors, including tighter monetary policy, restrictive immigration policies and tariffs as key contributors to the job market stagnation.
Carlyle Group Methodology
Carlyle's report leverages employment data across its global portfolio — comprising roughly 277 companies and 730,000 employees — to estimate broader U.S. employment trends.
The September estimate of 17,000 new jobs is based on real hiring activity within these businesses and is considered a reasonable barometer while government data remains inaccessible.
Broader Economic Implications
The consistency of declining job growth, coupled with rising unemployment, is sparking concern among economists for a potential recession.
Growth in other metrics — such as consumer spending and business investment — has not fully compensated for the weakening labor market, and projections suggest that the employment situation may continue to deteriorate if current headwinds persist.
The September jobs report, as provided by the Carlyle Group in the absence of government data, highlights the most severe jobs slowdown seen since the devastating early months of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
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Photo: Carolyn Franks via Shutterstock
