Oh, come on. There isn’t much to complain about in the New Orleans Saints signing Andy Dalton — but losing a valuable third-round compensatory pick in the 2023 NFL draft to add him could be disastrous. And that’s the scenario outlined by Over The Cap’s Nick Korte, who specializes in projecting the league’s annual comp pick distributions.
Before signing Dalton, the Saints were projected to receive one of the highest-valued comp picks in 2023 after losing standout left tackle Terron Armstead to the Miami Dolphins on a pricey free agent contract. But only teams that have lost more qualifying players (those signed above roughly $3 million or more) factor into the equation, and Dalton landing in New Orleans balances the scales to where that Armstead comp pick is now out of reach.
It doesn’t matter that Dalton’s $3 million per-year average is dwarfed by the $15 million per-year that Armstead is bringing in. Because both players meet the threshold, they both count, and they cancel each other out for New Orleans. Giving up a top-100 draft pick for Dalton would be malpractice. Hopefully the Saints are aware of this; they’ve navigated the comp pick formula carefully over the last few years, managing to add a couple of extra draft picks that have been put to good use.
The good news is that another shoe could drop here. If the Saints lose a free agent like Kwon Alexander or P.J. Williams on a contract that’s comparable to what Dalton costs, the scales would tip back the other way and they could recoup that expected third rounder for Armstead in 2023. But there’s no promise of that happening. New Orleans is just as likely to re-sign each player themselves, retaining the depth and playmaking ability they bring, which wouldn’t factor into the comp pick formula.
Plus, it’s possible that Korte is wrong. He’s put in a lot of work over the years to reverse engineer the NFL’s comp pick formula, which the league oddly protects like it’s a state secret. But he ultimately only deals in projections based off public information. This year he projected the Saints to receive a fourth round pick for Trey Hendrickson and a sixth rounder for Sheldon Rankins. Instead, the NFL awarded New Orleans a third round pick for Hendrickson and said Rankins’ departure was outweighed by the addition of Tanoh Kpassagnon. Maybe the league decides that the Saints losing Trevor Siemian on a $2 million per-year deal (to Chicago, ironically) balances out the Dalton signing at $3 million. We won’t know for sure until next year.
