ALBANY, N.Y. — Lee Zeldin believes a red wave will once again wash over Long Island and help the GOP gain seats in the state Senate.
The Republican gubernatorial candidate, congressman and Suffolk County native is confident that his fellow conservatives will gain ground in the Legislature by winning back the majority of Senate seats representing suburban and eastern Long Island on Election Day.
“We’re going to break the supermajority in the state Senate and state Assembly,” Zeldin, who is hoping to unseat Gov. Hochul, a Democrat, told reporters at an upstate rally last week. “I’ll tell you what, if it’s that good of a night on Tuesday do not be surprised if you start talking about the state Senate actually changing hands.
“We see it. We see it right on Long Island. At least eight of the nine seats I believe will be in Republican hands,” he added.
In 2018, Democrats wrestled control of the 63-seat upper chamber from Republicans in part by flipping several districts in both Nassau and Suffolk. Senate Dems boosted their conference to 42 members in 2020, giving them a veto-proof supermajority in the Legislature.
Republicans are hoping to retake some of the nine districts that span the two counties and build on big wins from last year when suburban voters embraced conservative candidates in a number of key posts across the island.
The GOP flipped both district attorney positions on Long Island from blue to red, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican, defeated incumbent Democrat Laura Curran last November after beating the drum over criminal justice and bail reforms — a message embraced by Zeldin’s campaign over the past year.
On Election Day, Long Island voters will be deciding races with several open seats, redrawn lines thanks to a chaotic redistricting process and more than a few familiar names on the ballot — with the makeup of the state Legislature hanging in the balance.
Along the North Shore of Nassau, incumbent Sen. Anna Kaplan, D-Nassau, is fighting off a challenge from Republican Jack Martins, a former state senator attempting a political comeback. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race in an effort to help Kaplan retain her seat.
Kaplan’s 7th Senate District includes North Hempstead, Glen Cove and Oyster Bay.
In central Suffolk, former Sen. Monica Martinez, a Democrat, is hoping voters will send her back to Albany as she faces off against Republican Wendy Rodriguez for an open seat in the redrawn 4th Senate District, which now has a Hispanic majority.
In the 5th Senate District, Republican Steven Rhoads is hoping to unseat incumbent Sen. John Brooks, D-Nassau, who switched districts after final maps were issued by an independent court-appointed expert earlier this year.
The new district covers a large swath of south Nassau suburbs, including Freeport and Amityville, and areas that went for former President Donald Trump in 2020.
Another open seat along the South Shore is the 9th Senate District, covering Valley Stream and Lynbrook down to Long Beach, which will see Democrat Kenneth Moore, the mayor of Bellerose Village, face off against Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick, a Republican whose campaign has focused on rolling back cashless bail and other criminal justice reforms.
The redrawn districts coupled with mounting enthusiasm for Zeldin, a hometown gubernatorial candidate atop the ticket, and concerns about cost-of-living and crime have boosted Republican confidence.
“Republicans are anticipating a very good night on Long Island, especially in the state Senate races,” GOP political consultant Bill O’Reilly told the Daily News. “Crime and inflation have really awakened middle- and working-class voters, and I’m told that turn-out models are super encouraging.
“This is starting to look a whole lot like 1994,” he added in reference to the year George Pataki, the last Republican governor of New York, defeated incumbent Democrat Mario Cuomo and the GOP saw wins up and down the ballot.
While one Democratic lawmaker said they fear a “bloodbath” on Long Island, a representative for the Senate Democrats said the prospect of a red wave was unlikely and dismissed Zeldin’s prediction.
“Republican extremists like Lee Zeldin never much cared for the truth, and this is just the latest laughable claim from these extremist insurrectionists,” said Mike Murphy, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats. “People want leaders who represent their values, not mini-Trumps, and the results will reflect that.”
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