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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Aletha Adu Political correspondent

Reform UK may overtake Welsh Labour in 2026 Senedd vote, poll suggests

Nigel Farage sitting at a table, talking to some people
Nigel Farage in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales, in June after launching the Reform UK manifesto. Photograph: EPA

A dramatic change looms in Welsh politics, as internal Labour polling suggests Reform UK could unseat the party in key Senedd seats in 2026, sources have said.

Labour has led every Welsh government since devolution in 1999, but the new proportional election system makes it easier for Reform to gain a bigger number of seats in Wales than it did in Westminster at the general election.

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