Several historic things have just happened at once in Wales. Plaid Cymru won in the Caerphilly byelection for our Senedd, with almost 50% of the vote. Reform lost. Labour collapsed. Each of those things means something significant for Wales, but it also carries valuable lessons for the rest of Britain. The message for Labour ought to be clear: standing up to the hard right can win elections.
Labour has been the largest party in Wales for over 100 years, leading the Welsh government since the start of devolution in 1999. It won the Caerphilly seat in 2021 with 46% of the vote. Four years later, it has ended up with just 11%. The drop is startling, but to make matters worse, under the new Senedd election system that will be introduced in May 2026, 11% is roughly the level where parties can be totally wiped out.
