Reform’s split of right-leaning vote could prove devastating for Tories

Voters choosing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are disillusioned with the government and unlikely to vote tactically for Tories to keep out Labour. Photograph: James Manning/PA

We have just passed the halfway mark of the election campaign. The candidates have been nominated, polling cards are arriving and the first postal votes are about to be cast. With more than 4,500 candidates standing and no seat having fewer than five candidates, voters will have more choice than ever – so how will they use it?

There are a record number of independent candidates, at 459, more than double the number in 2019. Although independents have been doing well in local elections throughout this parliament, their impact at a general election is usually more limited.